LARRams
8-0
35
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
045
NOSaints
6-1
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
7
10
10
8
35
Saints
14
21
0
10
45
Spread
+2
Total
OVER
57.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
485
487
Total Plays
60
70
Yards / Play
8.1
7.0
EPA / Play
+0.20
+0.29
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
28/41(68%)
25/36(69%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.39
+0.63
Rushing Yards
92
141
Rush Attempts
19
34
Yards / Rush
4.8
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.22
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
31
Passing 1st downs
17
19
Rushing 1st downs
5
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
38%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
8
12
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
5
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.26
-6.10
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
4
2
Penalty Yards
32
20
Penalty EPA
-4.42
+5.88
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.0
Model
+0.5
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model49.0%
Spread Pick
Saints+2.0
Expected Value
+0.1%
Cover Probability
50.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+38
Home nfelo
1,646
Away nfelo
1,676
Home Field
+67.8
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
-10.4
Net QB Adjustment
-0.3
Home QB Adjustment
+17.1
Away QB Adjustment
+17.3
Market Regression
-7.9
Final Difference
6.7
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+17.3
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+17.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
14
Yards / Game
3
12
Passing Yards / Game
9
17
Rushing Yards / Game
3
2
EPA
EPA / Play
3
11
EPA / Pass
5
21
EPA / Rush
3
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
30
Interceptions / Game
12
15
Fumbles / Game
6
7
Turnover EPA / Game
28
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
23
4th Down Efficiency
19
7
RZ Efficiency
19
23
Saints Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
18
Yards / Game
8
20
Passing Yards / Game
21
15
Rushing Yards / Game
9
17
EPA
EPA / Play
2
17
EPA / Pass
2
10
EPA / Rush
13
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
26
Interceptions / Game
4
5
Fumbles / Game
13
6
Turnover EPA / Game
23
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
6
4th Down Efficiency
2
21
RZ Efficiency
4
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
8-2
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Saints
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U