LARRams
3-4
26
TBD
Lumen Field
52°F
4 mph
20
SEASeahawks
4-4
TBD
Lumen Field
52°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Rams
0
3
10
1
6
20
Seahawks
0
13
0
7
0
20
Spread
-1.5
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
366
424
Total Plays
68
74
Yards / Play
5.4
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.21
Passing Yards
--
317
Comp/Att
25/44(57%)
21/34(62%)
Yards / Pass
--
9.3
EPA / Pass
+0.09
-0.16
Rushing Yards
68
107
Rush Attempts
24
33
Yards / Rush
2.8
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.24
-0.38
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
20
Passing 1st downs
13
14
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
5
2
3rd Down %
23%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
33%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.02
-21.60
Sacks
--
7
Sack Yards
--
-46
Sack EPA
--
-9.35
Penalties
8
12
Penalty Yards
83
95
Penalty EPA
-9.88
-11.11
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
+1.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model46.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+61
Home nfelo
1,513
Away nfelo
1,490
Home Field
+23.6
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
-19.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+14.0
Home QB Adjustment
+6.4
Away QB Adjustment
-7.7
Market Regression
-3.5
Final Difference
22.6
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-7.7
E. Smith
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+6.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
13
Yards / Game
14
13
Passing Yards / Game
31
9
Rushing Yards / Game
23
16
EPA
EPA / Play
14
10
EPA / Pass
12
8
EPA / Rush
27
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
5
Interceptions / Game
7
13
Fumbles / Game
11
19
Turnover EPA / Game
28
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
10
4th Down Efficiency
7
6
RZ Efficiency
25
8
Seahawks Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
15
Yards / Game
15
25
Passing Yards / Game
4
15
Rushing Yards / Game
28
28
EPA
EPA / Play
20
20
EPA / Pass
21
13
EPA / Rush
18
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
23
Interceptions / Game
26
15
Fumbles / Game
6
25
Turnover EPA / Game
10
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
18
4th Down Efficiency
21
6
RZ Efficiency
14
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Seahawks
5-5
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U