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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ seahawks week 16, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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LAR logo
LARRams
9-5
9
TBD
Lumen Field
45°F
2 mph
20
SEASeahawks
10-4
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
45°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
3
3
0
3
9
Seahawks
0
6
7
7
20

Spread

SEA logo
-1.5

Total

UNDER
48

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
334
292
Total Plays
75
61
Yards / Play
4.5
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.12
+0.01
Passing Yards
216
197
Comp/Att
24/43(56%)
20/32(63%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
6.2
EPA / Pass
-0.06
+0.10
Rushing Yards
118
95
Rush Attempts
29
24
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.27
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
20
15
Passing 1st downs
15
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
47%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
9
8
3rd Down Attempts
19
17
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.92
--
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-18
-28
Sack EPA
-3.61
-8.10
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
--
31
Penalty EPA
--
-5.11

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+13
Home nfelo
1,609
Away nfelo
1,599
Home Field
+3.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-0.2
Home QB Adjustment
-0.5
Away QB Adjustment
-0.3
Market Regression
-20.3
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5

Quarterbacks

J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
-0.3
Value
Ptile
10/11
4.0
73
10/18
-1.7
31
10/26
2.9
66
11/01
-2.7
26
11/15
-1.6
32
11/23
8.5
93
11/29
-7.2
7
12/06
8.0
92
12/10
-0.7
40
12/20
-4.2
18
R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-0.5
Value
Ptile
10/11
2.2
61
10/25
6.8
87
11/01
7.8
91
11/08
1.9
58
11/15
-5.8
12
11/19
1.8
57
11/30
0.4
49
12/06
-2.1
28
12/13
1.7
55
12/20
0.3
48

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Rams logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
22
16
Yards / Game
17
22
Passing Yards / Game
16
31
Rushing Yards / Game
11
5

EPA

EPA / Play
26
14
EPA / Pass
20
22
EPA / Rush
24
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
4
Interceptions / Game
16
14
Fumbles / Game
19
17
Turnover EPA / Game
9
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
26
4th Down Efficiency
28
4
RZ Efficiency
18
18
Seahawks Offense vs Rams Defense
Seahawks logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
7
2
Yards / Game
18
1
Passing Yards / Game
7
3
Rushing Yards / Game
12
4

EPA

EPA / Play
6
1
EPA / Pass
12
1
EPA / Rush
7
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
23
Interceptions / Game
22
13
Fumbles / Game
2
16
Turnover EPA / Game
14
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
4
4th Down Efficiency
18
7
RZ Efficiency
3
12

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/11
20
W
W
U
10/18
-8
L
L
U
10/26
14
W
W
U
11/01
-11
L
L
U
11/15
7
W
W
U
11/23
3
W
W
O
11/29
-3
L
L
U
12/06
10
W
W
O
12/10
21
W
W
U
12/20
-3
L
L
U
SEA logo

Seahawks

6-4
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/11
1
W
L
U
10/25
-3
L
L
O
11/01
10
W
W
O
11/08
-10
L
L
O
11/15
-7
L
L
U
11/19
7
W
W
U
11/30
6
W
L
U
12/06
-5
L
L
U
12/13
37
W
W
U
12/20
5
W
L
U