LARRams
9-5
9
TBD
Lumen Field
45°F
2 mph
20
SEASeahawks
10-4
TBD
Lumen Field
45°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
3
3
0
3
9
Seahawks
0
6
7
7
20
Spread
-1.5
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
334
292
Total Plays
75
61
Yards / Play
4.5
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.12
+0.01
Passing Yards
216
197
Comp/Att
24/43(56%)
20/32(63%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
6.2
EPA / Pass
-0.06
+0.10
Rushing Yards
118
95
Rush Attempts
29
24
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.27
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
15
Passing 1st downs
15
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
47%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
9
8
3rd Down Attempts
19
17
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.92
--
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-18
-28
Sack EPA
-3.61
-8.10
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
--
31
Penalty EPA
--
-5.11
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+10
Home nfelo
1,610
Away nfelo
1,603
Home Field
+3.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-0.2
Home QB Adjustment
-0.5
Away QB Adjustment
-0.3
Market Regression
-13.6
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
-0.3
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-0.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
16
Yards / Game
17
22
Passing Yards / Game
16
31
Rushing Yards / Game
11
5
EPA
EPA / Play
26
14
EPA / Pass
20
22
EPA / Rush
24
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
4
Interceptions / Game
16
14
Fumbles / Game
19
17
Turnover EPA / Game
9
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
26
4th Down Efficiency
28
4
RZ Efficiency
18
18
Seahawks Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
2
Yards / Game
18
1
Passing Yards / Game
7
3
Rushing Yards / Game
12
4
EPA
EPA / Play
6
1
EPA / Pass
12
1
EPA / Rush
7
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
23
Interceptions / Game
22
13
Fumbles / Game
2
16
Turnover EPA / Game
14
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
4
4th Down Efficiency
18
7
RZ Efficiency
3
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U
Seahawks
6-4
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U