LARRams
6-1
38
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
022
HOUTexans
1-6
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
7
17
14
0
38
Texans
0
0
0
22
22
Spread
+16.5
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
467
325
Total Plays
66
59
Yards / Play
7.1
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.22
-0.10
Passing Yards
302
279
Comp/Att
22/34(65%)
29/39(74%)
Yards / Pass
8.9
7.2
EPA / Pass
+0.39
-0.19
Rushing Yards
165
46
Rush Attempts
31
15
Yards / Rush
5.3
3.1
EPA / Rush
+0.03
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
18
Passing 1st downs
16
13
Rushing 1st downs
9
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
36%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
63%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
5
2
Red Zone Attempts
8
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-5.22
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-8
-31
Sack EPA
-1.83
-9.19
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
20
38
Penalty EPA
-1.56
-7.36
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-14.5
Current
-16.5
Model
-16.5
Win Probability
Market90.3%
Model90.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-360
Home nfelo
1,360
Away nfelo
1,638
Home Field
+55.3
Base HFA
+40.7
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+14.6
Net QB Adjustment
-137.7
Home QB Adjustment
-115.0
Away QB Adjustment
+22.8
Market Regression
-46.3
Final Difference
-387.6
Model Spread
+16.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+22.8
D. Mills
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-115.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
27
Yards / Game
7
31
Passing Yards / Game
1
26
Rushing Yards / Game
27
31
EPA
EPA / Play
9
26
EPA / Pass
2
26
EPA / Rush
31
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
9
Interceptions / Game
26
8
Fumbles / Game
11
18
Turnover EPA / Game
14
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
26
4th Down Efficiency
17
20
RZ Efficiency
17
20
Texans Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
9
Yards / Game
32
13
Passing Yards / Game
22
27
Rushing Yards / Game
32
5
EPA
EPA / Play
30
6
EPA / Pass
28
9
EPA / Rush
30
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
28
Interceptions / Game
21
5
Fumbles / Game
13
28
Turnover EPA / Game
22
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
7
4th Down Efficiency
27
14
RZ Efficiency
27
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Texans
1-9
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U