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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ titans week 14, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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LAR logo
LARRams
1-11
7
TBD
Nissan Stadium
54°F
0
47
TENTitans
5-7
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
54°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
0
0
7
7
Titans
14
9
10
8
41

Spread

TEN logo
-13.5

Total

OVER
40

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
240
446
Total Plays
65
57
Yards / Play
3.7
7.8
EPA / Play
-0.34
+0.33
Passing Yards
152
--
Comp/Att
27/43(63%)
17/27(63%)
Yards / Pass
3.5
--
EPA / Pass
-0.57
+0.52
Rushing Yards
88
160
Rush Attempts
21
30
Yards / Rush
4.2
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
15
19
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
33%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
50%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
6
0
Interceptions
5
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-18.82
--
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-5
--
Sack EPA
-1.66
--
Penalties
10
4
Penalty Yards
82
40
Penalty EPA
-7.45
-4.22

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TEN logo
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-14.0
Current
-13.5
Model
-13.5

Win Probability

Market86.2%
Model86.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+321
Home nfelo
1,527
Away nfelo
1,311
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+21.2
Home QB Adjustment
+17.7
Away QB Adjustment
-3.5
Market Regression
-16.6
Final Difference
318.3
Model Spread
-13.5

Quarterbacks

K. Null headshot

K. Null

Proj. Value
-5.0
Team Elo Adj
-3.5
No recent game data available
V. Young headshot

V. Young

Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+17.7
Value
Ptile
12/23
-5.9
13
12/30
1.9
64
01/06
-4.3
23
09/07
-5.4
13
11/01
1.3
58
11/08
1.2
58
11/15
4.2
77
11/23
3.3
72
11/29
3.8
74
12/06
1.5
60

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Titans Defense
Rams logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
32
28
Yards / Game
29
27
Passing Yards / Game
24
25
Rushing Yards / Game
19
11

EPA

EPA / Play
32
27
EPA / Pass
31
26
EPA / Rush
30
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
32
Interceptions / Game
29
7
Fumbles / Game
19
28
Turnover EPA / Game
2
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
26
4th Down Efficiency
29
31
RZ Efficiency
31
27
Titans Offense vs Rams Defense
Titans logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
15
31
Yards / Game
13
29
Passing Yards / Game
31
6
Rushing Yards / Game
2
27

EPA

EPA / Play
13
31
EPA / Pass
17
30
EPA / Rush
2
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
7
Interceptions / Game
14
31
Fumbles / Game
29
7
Turnover EPA / Game
22
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
29
4th Down Efficiency
12
15
RZ Efficiency
9
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

1-9
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/27
-19
L
L
O
10/04
-35
L
L
U
10/11
-28
L
L
O
10/18
-3
L
W
O
10/25
-36
L
L
O
11/01
7
W
W
U
11/15
-5
L
W
O
11/22
-8
L
W
U
11/29
-10
L
L
O
12/06
-8
L
W
U
TEN logo

Titans

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/27
-7
L
L
O
10/04
-20
L
L
O
10/11
-22
L
L
U
10/18
-59
L
L
O
11/01
17
W
W
U
11/08
7
W
W
O
11/15
24
W
W
O
11/23
3
W
W
U
11/29
3
W
L
U
12/06
-10
L
L
U