BALRavens
4-5
20
TBD
Soldier Field
68°F
17 mph
23
CHIBears
5-4
TBD
Soldier Field
68°F
17 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Ravens
10
7
0
3
0
20
Bears
0
7
0
7
3
17
Spread
3
P
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
317
319
Total Plays
75
59
Yards / Play
4.2
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.07
Passing Yards
143
215
Comp/Att
17/31(55%)
19/31(61%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.20
+0.19
Rushing Yards
174
104
Rush Attempts
41
26
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
18
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
9
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
44%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
18
13
Red Zone %
67%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-9.56
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-19
-1
Sack EPA
-5.35
-1.52
Penalties
5
13
Penalty Yards
46
111
Penalty EPA
-7.26
-13.89
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model56.3%
Spread Pick
Ravens+3.0
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+10
Home nfelo
1,515
Away nfelo
1,552
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-26.9
Home QB Adjustment
-42.8
Away QB Adjustment
-15.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
44.1
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-15.9
J. McCown
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-42.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
30
Yards / Game
28
29
Passing Yards / Game
12
13
Rushing Yards / Game
30
32
EPA
EPA / Play
23
31
EPA / Pass
21
16
EPA / Rush
31
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
30
Interceptions / Game
31
7
Fumbles / Game
9
20
Turnover EPA / Game
18
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
25
4th Down Efficiency
23
30
RZ Efficiency
31
20
Bears Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
11
Yards / Game
7
12
Passing Yards / Game
7
4
Rushing Yards / Game
15
10
EPA
EPA / Play
7
10
EPA / Pass
6
13
EPA / Rush
8
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
4
Interceptions / Game
12
14
Fumbles / Game
17
29
Turnover EPA / Game
11
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
3
4th Down Efficiency
8
23
RZ Efficiency
7
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bears
6-4
SU
2-7-1
ATS
7-3
O/U