BALRavens
2-1
20
TBD
New Era Field
67°F
15 mph
23
BUFBills
1-2
TBD
New Era Field
67°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
7
7
6
20
Bills
6
14
3
0
23
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
345
350
Total Plays
63
79
Yards / Play
5.5
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.29
-0.21
Passing Yards
321
147
Comp/Att
25/50(50%)
10/22(45%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.28
-0.35
Rushing Yards
24
203
Rush Attempts
9
55
Yards / Rush
2.7
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.29
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
19
Passing 1st downs
13
7
Rushing 1st downs
--
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
19%
28%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
18
Red Zone %
25%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
5
3
Interceptions
5
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-18.22
-10.44
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-26
-20
Sack EPA
-4.84
-7.18
Penalties
8
11
Penalty Yards
59
99
Penalty EPA
-4.91
-13.25
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-79
Home nfelo
1,429
Away nfelo
1,568
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-1.6
Home QB Adjustment
-1.0
Away QB Adjustment
+0.6
Market Regression
+25.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+0.6
E. Manuel
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-1.0
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
20
Yards / Game
28
10
Passing Yards / Game
12
7
Rushing Yards / Game
30
27
EPA
EPA / Play
23
8
EPA / Pass
21
2
EPA / Rush
31
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
4
Interceptions / Game
31
2
Fumbles / Game
9
24
Turnover EPA / Game
18
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
14
4th Down Efficiency
23
11
RZ Efficiency
31
6
Bills Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
11
Yards / Game
19
12
Passing Yards / Game
29
4
Rushing Yards / Game
2
10
EPA
EPA / Play
26
10
EPA / Pass
31
13
EPA / Rush
9
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
4
Interceptions / Game
15
14
Fumbles / Game
22
29
Turnover EPA / Game
12
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
3
4th Down Efficiency
30
23
RZ Efficiency
29
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bills
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U