BALRavens
10-2
24
TBD
New Era Field
43°F
18 mph
17
BUFBills
9-3
TBD
New Era Field
43°F
18 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
3
7
7
7
24
Bills
0
6
3
8
17
Spread
-6.5
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
257
211
Total Plays
59
69
Yards / Play
4.4
3.1
EPA / Play
-0.05
-0.20
Passing Yards
139
107
Comp/Att
16/25(64%)
17/40(43%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
2.7
EPA / Pass
+0.04
-0.53
Rushing Yards
118
104
Rush Attempts
33
23
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
16
Passing 1st downs
8
7
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
5
3rd Down %
27%
24%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
17
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.32
-4.85
Sacks
1
6
Sack Yards
-6
-41
Sack EPA
-1.76
-10.58
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
99
44
Penalty EPA
-9.45
-6.38
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model71.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-132
Home nfelo
1,496
Away nfelo
1,664
Home Field
+65.0
Base HFA
+48.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-28.3
Home QB Adjustment
+24.9
Away QB Adjustment
+53.2
Market Regression
-24.0
Final Difference
-158.9
Model Spread
+6.5
Quarterbacks
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+4.4
Team Elo Adj
+53.2
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+4.8
Team Elo Adj
+24.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
2
Yards / Game
2
4
Passing Yards / Game
23
5
Rushing Yards / Game
1
11
EPA
EPA / Play
1
4
EPA / Pass
1
5
EPA / Rush
1
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
19
Interceptions / Game
10
12
Fumbles / Game
9
18
Turnover EPA / Game
30
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
9
4th Down Efficiency
5
6
RZ Efficiency
5
14
Bills Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
3
Yards / Game
24
3
Passing Yards / Game
21
14
Rushing Yards / Game
7
7
EPA
EPA / Play
20
7
EPA / Pass
20
3
EPA / Rush
10
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
26
Interceptions / Game
15
16
Fumbles / Game
15
6
Turnover EPA / Game
23
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
14
4th Down Efficiency
22
3
RZ Efficiency
20
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bills
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U