BALRavens
3-4
18
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
46°F
9 mph
24
CLEBrowns
3-5
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
46°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
3
7
0
8
18
Browns
7
7
7
3
24
Spread
+2
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
280
315
Total Plays
68
68
Yards / Play
4.1
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.02
+0.05
Passing Yards
225
242
Comp/Att
24/42(57%)
24/37(65%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.01
+0.32
Rushing Yards
55
73
Rush Attempts
21
29
Yards / Rush
2.6
2.5
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.39
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
19
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
44%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
15
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-1.69
-0.41
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-27
-18
Sack EPA
-7.84
-2.35
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
80
55
Penalty EPA
-11.10
-4.46
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model54.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-73
Home nfelo
1,434
Away nfelo
1,551
Home Field
+7.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+37.9
Home QB Adjustment
+33.5
Away QB Adjustment
-4.4
Market Regression
+35.5
Final Difference
-32.8
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-4.4
J. Campbell
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+33.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
23
Yards / Game
28
9
Passing Yards / Game
12
9
Rushing Yards / Game
30
18
EPA
EPA / Play
23
17
EPA / Pass
21
12
EPA / Rush
31
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
3
Interceptions / Game
31
19
Fumbles / Game
9
24
Turnover EPA / Game
18
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
31
4th Down Efficiency
23
16
RZ Efficiency
31
31
Browns Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
11
Yards / Game
18
12
Passing Yards / Game
8
4
Rushing Yards / Game
28
10
EPA
EPA / Play
25
10
EPA / Pass
25
13
EPA / Rush
14
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
4
Interceptions / Game
24
14
Fumbles / Game
9
29
Turnover EPA / Game
14
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
3
4th Down Efficiency
17
23
RZ Efficiency
22
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Browns
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U