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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. ravens @ browns week 9, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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BAL logo
BALRavens
3-4
18
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
46°F
9 mph
24
CLEBrowns
3-5
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
46°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
3
7
0
8
18
Browns
7
7
7
3
24

Spread

CLE logo
+2

Total

OVER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Ravens logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
280
315
Total Plays
68
68
Yards / Play
4.1
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.02
+0.05
Passing Yards
225
242
Comp/Att
24/42(57%)
24/37(65%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.01
+0.32
Rushing Yards
55
73
Rush Attempts
21
29
Yards / Rush
2.6
2.5
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.39
Downs & Conversions
Ravens logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
18
19
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
44%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
15
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Ravens logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-1.69
-0.41
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-27
-18
Sack EPA
-7.84
-2.35
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
80
55
Penalty EPA
-11.10
-4.46

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0

Win Probability

Market54.7%
Model54.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-71
Home nfelo
1,433
Away nfelo
1,549
Home Field
+7.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+37.9
Home QB Adjustment
+33.5
Away QB Adjustment
-4.4
Market Regression
+35.5
Final Difference
-32.8
Model Spread
+2.0

Quarterbacks

J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-4.4
Value
Ptile
01/12
7.1
90
01/20
3.2
71
02/03
5.3
83
09/05
-1.8
40
09/15
0.4
52
09/22
-1.9
39
09/29
-9.3
4
10/06
-2.2
37
10/13
0.8
56
10/20
3.9
76
J. Campbell headshot

J. Campbell

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+33.5
Value
Ptile
12/26
0.8
54
01/02
0.4
51
09/12
-0.9
45
09/18
8.4
95
09/25
0.4
55
10/02
3.6
75
10/09
-5.1
18
10/16
-2.4
34
11/19
-9.2
3
10/27
6.2
87

Team Matchup Ranks

Ravens Offense vs Browns Defense
Ravens logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
25
23
Yards / Game
28
9
Passing Yards / Game
12
9
Rushing Yards / Game
30
18

EPA

EPA / Play
23
17
EPA / Pass
21
12
EPA / Rush
31
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
3
Interceptions / Game
31
19
Fumbles / Game
9
24
Turnover EPA / Game
18
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
31
4th Down Efficiency
23
16
RZ Efficiency
31
31
Browns Offense vs Ravens Defense
Browns logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
27
11
Yards / Game
18
12
Passing Yards / Game
8
4
Rushing Yards / Game
28
10

EPA

EPA / Play
25
10
EPA / Pass
25
13
EPA / Rush
14
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
4
Interceptions / Game
24
14
Fumbles / Game
9
29
Turnover EPA / Game
14
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
3
4th Down Efficiency
17
23
RZ Efficiency
22
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BAL logo

Ravens

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/12
3
W
W
O
01/20
15
W
W
U
02/03
3
W
W
O
09/05
-22
L
L
O
09/15
8
W
W
U
09/22
21
W
W
U
09/29
-3
L
L
U
10/06
3
W
W
O
10/13
-2
L
L
U
10/20
-3
L
L
U
CLE logo

Browns

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/23
-22
L
L
O
12/30
-14
L
L
U
09/08
-13
L
L
U
09/15
-8
L
L
U
09/22
4
W
W
O
09/29
11
W
W
U
10/03
13
W
W
O
10/13
-14
L
L
O
10/20
-18
L
L
U
10/27
-6
L
W
O