BALRavens
8-3
24
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
54°F
30 mph
10
CLEBrowns
4-7
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
54°F
30 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
10
7
1
18
Browns
0
0
3
7
10
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
38.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
448
233
Total Plays
79
56
Yards / Play
5.7
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.00
-0.30
Passing Yards
158
174
Comp/Att
10/23(43%)
18/36(50%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
4.8
EPA / Pass
-0.08
-0.29
Rushing Yards
290
59
Rush Attempts
55
17
Yards / Rush
5.3
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
13
Passing 1st downs
7
9
Rushing 1st downs
16
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
47%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
9
3
3rd Down Attempts
19
14
Red Zone %
40%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.77
-4.56
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
--
-22
Sack EPA
-3.77
-5.06
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
18
37
Penalty EPA
-2.38
-2.65
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-183
Home nfelo
1,398
Away nfelo
1,637
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+0.1
Home QB Adjustment
+5.2
Away QB Adjustment
+5.1
Market Regression
-15.6
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+5.1
D. McCoy
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+5.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
5
Yards / Game
15
10
Passing Yards / Game
13
6
Rushing Yards / Game
12
30
EPA
EPA / Play
15
18
EPA / Pass
12
12
EPA / Rush
18
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
14
Interceptions / Game
5
30
Fumbles / Game
23
4
Turnover EPA / Game
23
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
24
4th Down Efficiency
12
16
RZ Efficiency
17
3
Browns Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
3
Yards / Game
29
3
Passing Yards / Game
20
4
Rushing Yards / Game
28
3
EPA
EPA / Play
26
3
EPA / Pass
23
2
EPA / Rush
24
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
16
Interceptions / Game
9
12
Fumbles / Game
1
10
Turnover EPA / Game
27
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
3
4th Down Efficiency
7
20
RZ Efficiency
29
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Browns
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U