BALRavens
7-6
27
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
36°F
010
CLEBrowns
0-13
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
36°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
3
14
4
0
21
Browns
0
10
0
0
10
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
376
266
Total Plays
74
58
Yards / Play
5.1
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.36
Passing Yards
279
136
Comp/Att
26/42(62%)
20/37(54%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
3.7
EPA / Pass
+0.13
-0.57
Rushing Yards
97
130
Rush Attempts
31
19
Yards / Rush
3.1
6.8
EPA / Rush
-0.20
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
15
Passing 1st downs
12
8
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
44%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
14
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-17.43
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-9
-10
Sack EPA
-3.16
-7.68
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
57
35
Penalty EPA
-4.45
-4.76
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-184
Home nfelo
1,301
Away nfelo
1,527
Home Field
+30.6
Base HFA
+55.7
Divisional Adj
-25.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+11.5
Home QB Adjustment
+5.2
Away QB Adjustment
-6.2
Market Regression
+15.4
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-6.2
D. Kizer
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
+5.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
31
Yards / Game
27
13
Passing Yards / Game
31
31
Rushing Yards / Game
10
7
EPA
EPA / Play
14
27
EPA / Pass
20
27
EPA / Rush
14
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
6
Interceptions / Game
17
31
Fumbles / Game
1
18
Turnover EPA / Game
17
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
23
4th Down Efficiency
4
18
RZ Efficiency
9
32
Browns Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
5
Yards / Game
24
12
Passing Yards / Game
15
12
Rushing Yards / Game
18
16
EPA
EPA / Play
31
2
EPA / Pass
32
2
EPA / Rush
4
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
25
Interceptions / Game
32
1
Fumbles / Game
25
4
Turnover EPA / Game
1
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
8
4th Down Efficiency
12
11
RZ Efficiency
24
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Browns
0-10
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U