BALRavens
1-0
23
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
72°F
5 mph
24
PHIEagles
1-0
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
72°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
7
10
0
6
23
Eagles
7
0
10
7
24
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
325
486
Total Plays
65
75
Yards / Play
5.0
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.05
-0.06
Passing Yards
214
357
Comp/Att
22/42(52%)
23/32(72%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
11.2
EPA / Pass
-0.26
+0.36
Rushing Yards
111
129
Rush Attempts
21
41
Yards / Rush
5.3
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
26
Passing 1st downs
9
17
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
29%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
50%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
4
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-9.14
-19.07
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-18
-14
Sack EPA
-6.33
-3.19
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
45
58
Penalty EPA
-10.81
-7.40
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+62
Home nfelo
1,582
Away nfelo
1,602
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-2.9
Home QB Adjustment
+2.9
Away QB Adjustment
+5.8
Market Regression
+40.5
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+5.8
M. Vick
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+2.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
29
Yards / Game
11
14
Passing Yards / Game
17
3
Rushing Yards / Game
11
21
EPA
EPA / Play
10
29
EPA / Pass
13
31
EPA / Rush
17
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
5
Interceptions / Game
4
30
Fumbles / Game
12
26
Turnover EPA / Game
27
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
27
4th Down Efficiency
26
1
RZ Efficiency
6
19
Eagles Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
12
Yards / Game
17
23
Passing Yards / Game
6
25
Rushing Yards / Game
13
22
EPA
EPA / Play
27
16
EPA / Pass
24
14
EPA / Rush
27
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
19
Interceptions / Game
14
13
Fumbles / Game
32
11
Turnover EPA / Game
1
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
11
4th Down Efficiency
10
13
RZ Efficiency
29
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Eagles
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U