BALRavens
3-3
16
TBD
MetLife Stadium
58°F
36 mph
24
NYJJets
1-5
TBD
MetLife Stadium
58°F
36 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
4
6
0
0
10
Jets
7
7
10
0
24
Spread
-2
Total
UNDER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
245
344
Total Plays
57
66
Yards / Play
4.3
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.31
-0.17
Passing Yards
234
189
Comp/Att
25/44(57%)
13/22(59%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
8.6
EPA / Pass
-0.36
+0.00
Rushing Yards
11
155
Rush Attempts
11
39
Yards / Rush
1.0
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.49
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
16
Passing 1st downs
11
7
Rushing 1st downs
--
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
21%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
16
Red Zone %
NaN%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
--
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-10.91
-5.62
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-14
-26
Sack EPA
-3.08
-7.75
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
35
--
Penalty EPA
-3.83
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.2%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+22
Home nfelo
1,494
Away nfelo
1,502
Home Field
+77.0
Base HFA
+57.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-47.1
Home QB Adjustment
-51.0
Away QB Adjustment
-3.9
Market Regression
+14.0
Final Difference
29.3
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-3.9
E. Smith
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-51.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
28
Yards / Game
17
11
Passing Yards / Game
14
12
Rushing Yards / Game
28
13
EPA
EPA / Play
19
23
EPA / Pass
26
30
EPA / Rush
15
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
16
Interceptions / Game
21
29
Fumbles / Game
2
27
Turnover EPA / Game
19
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
19
4th Down Efficiency
26
1
RZ Efficiency
19
21
Jets Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
9
Yards / Game
26
7
Passing Yards / Game
15
16
Rushing Yards / Game
11
5
EPA
EPA / Play
30
6
EPA / Pass
31
11
EPA / Rush
9
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
19
Interceptions / Game
32
1
Fumbles / Game
16
8
Turnover EPA / Game
3
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
2
4th Down Efficiency
26
25
RZ Efficiency
32
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Jets
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U