BALRavens
4-5
23
TBD
Lambeau Field
28°F
14 mph
0
GBPackers
5-4
TBD
Lambeau Field
28°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
6
7
10
23
Packers
0
0
0
0
0
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
38.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
219
265
Total Plays
57
67
Yards / Play
3.8
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.19
-0.59
Passing Yards
161
190
Comp/Att
22/28(79%)
21/36(58%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
5.3
EPA / Pass
-0.22
-0.81
Rushing Yards
58
75
Rush Attempts
26
25
Yards / Rush
2.2
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.34
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
16
Passing 1st downs
7
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
21%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
5
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-3.95
-26.20
Sacks
3
6
Sack Yards
-22
-49
Sack EPA
-4.02
-16.01
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
30
53
Penalty EPA
-2.57
-6.70
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-86
Home nfelo
1,527
Away nfelo
1,498
Home Field
+2.4
Base HFA
+56.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-43.5
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.0
Net QB Adjustment
-117.4
Home QB Adjustment
-137.1
Away QB Adjustment
-19.7
Market Regression
-3.5
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-19.7
B. Hundley
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-137.1
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
26
Yards / Game
27
23
Passing Yards / Game
31
25
Rushing Yards / Game
10
18
EPA
EPA / Play
14
29
EPA / Pass
20
30
EPA / Rush
14
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
5
Interceptions / Game
17
18
Fumbles / Game
1
9
Turnover EPA / Game
17
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
28
4th Down Efficiency
4
31
RZ Efficiency
9
30
Packers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
5
Yards / Game
26
12
Passing Yards / Game
17
12
Rushing Yards / Game
17
16
EPA
EPA / Play
17
2
EPA / Pass
23
2
EPA / Rush
2
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
25
Interceptions / Game
28
1
Fumbles / Game
7
4
Turnover EPA / Game
11
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
8
4th Down Efficiency
10
11
RZ Efficiency
4
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Packers
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U