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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. ravens @ raiders week 5, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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BAL logo
BALRavens
2-2
30
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
72°F
8 mph
17
OAKRaiders
2-2
OAK logo
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
72°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
8
10
0
6
24
Raiders
3
7
7
0
17

Spread

BAL logo
+3

Total

OVER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Ravens logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
365
245
Total Plays
65
54
Yards / Play
5.6
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.13
-0.19
Passing Yards
--
137
Comp/Att
19/26(73%)
13/26(50%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.34
-0.41
Rushing Yards
143
108
Rush Attempts
39
25
Yards / Rush
3.7
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.00
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
Ravens logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
19
15
Passing 1st downs
8
8
Rushing 1st downs
11
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
50%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
40%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Ravens logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-9.49
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-22
Sack EPA
--
-4.94
Penalties
1
3
Penalty Yards
--
24
Penalty EPA
--
-1.97

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
OAK logo
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+30
Home nfelo
1,516
Away nfelo
1,496
Home Field
+68.5
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
-58.2
Home QB Adjustment
-80.5
Away QB Adjustment
-22.2
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-22.2
Value
Ptile
11/27
0.2
50
12/04
11.7
99
12/12
4.3
80
12/18
-4.5
16
12/25
0.7
55
01/01
-2.4
30
09/10
-4.6
22
09/17
0.1
53
09/24
-11.8
1
10/01
-4.8
20
E. Manuel headshot

E. Manuel

Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-80.5
Value
Ptile
12/01
1.2
59
12/08
-15.9
0
12/15
0.7
55
09/07
1.6
63
09/14
1.5
61
09/21
-0.9
43
09/28
-5.8
16
10/18
2.6
69
10/25
-2.8
31
01/01
-7.8
6

Team Matchup Ranks

Ravens Offense vs Raiders Defense
Ravens logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
9
20
Yards / Game
27
24
Passing Yards / Game
31
23
Rushing Yards / Game
10
11

EPA

EPA / Play
14
31
EPA / Pass
20
31
EPA / Rush
14
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
30
Interceptions / Game
17
32
Fumbles / Game
1
18
Turnover EPA / Game
17
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
25
4th Down Efficiency
4
30
RZ Efficiency
9
8
Raiders Offense vs Ravens Defense
Raiders logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
22
5
Yards / Game
18
12
Passing Yards / Game
30
12
Rushing Yards / Game
25
16

EPA

EPA / Play
15
2
EPA / Pass
16
2
EPA / Rush
22
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
25
Interceptions / Game
20
1
Fumbles / Game
31
4
Turnover EPA / Game
13
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
8
4th Down Efficiency
27
11
RZ Efficiency
8
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BAL logo

Ravens

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/27
5
W
W
U
12/04
32
W
W
O
12/12
-7
L
L
O
12/18
1
W
L
O
12/25
-4
L
W
O
01/01
-17
L
L
U
09/10
20
W
W
U
09/17
14
W
W
U
09/24
-37
L
L
O
10/01
-17
L
L
U
OAK logo

Raiders

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/04
14
W
W
O
12/08
-8
L
L
U
12/18
3
W
W
U
12/24
8
W
W
O
01/01
-18
L
L
U
01/07
-13
L
L
O
09/10
10
W
W
U
09/17
25
W
W
O
09/24
-17
L
L
U
10/01
-6
L
L
U