BALRavens
2-2
30
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
72°F
8 mph
17
OAKRaiders
2-2
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
72°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
8
10
0
6
24
Raiders
3
7
7
0
17
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
365
245
Total Plays
65
54
Yards / Play
5.6
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.13
-0.19
Passing Yards
--
137
Comp/Att
19/26(73%)
13/26(50%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.34
-0.41
Rushing Yards
143
108
Rush Attempts
39
25
Yards / Rush
3.7
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.00
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
15
Passing 1st downs
8
8
Rushing 1st downs
11
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
50%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
40%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-9.49
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-22
Sack EPA
--
-4.94
Penalties
1
3
Penalty Yards
--
24
Penalty EPA
--
-1.97
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+28
Home nfelo
1,515
Away nfelo
1,496
Home Field
+67.5
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-58.2
Home QB Adjustment
-80.5
Away QB Adjustment
-22.2
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-22.2
E. Manuel
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-80.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
20
Yards / Game
27
24
Passing Yards / Game
31
23
Rushing Yards / Game
10
11
EPA
EPA / Play
14
31
EPA / Pass
20
31
EPA / Rush
14
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
30
Interceptions / Game
17
32
Fumbles / Game
1
18
Turnover EPA / Game
17
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
25
4th Down Efficiency
4
30
RZ Efficiency
9
8
Raiders Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
5
Yards / Game
18
12
Passing Yards / Game
30
12
Rushing Yards / Game
25
16
EPA
EPA / Play
15
2
EPA / Pass
16
2
EPA / Rush
22
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
25
Interceptions / Game
20
1
Fumbles / Game
31
4
Turnover EPA / Game
13
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
8
4th Down Efficiency
27
11
RZ Efficiency
8
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Raiders
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U