BALRavens
2-1
17
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
52°F
5 mph
14
PITSteelers
3-0
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
52°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
10
0
7
17
Steelers
7
0
0
7
14
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
34.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
320
210
Total Plays
65
50
Yards / Play
4.9
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.11
Passing Yards
250
126
Comp/Att
24/37(65%)
12/21(57%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.16
-0.01
Rushing Yards
70
84
Rush Attempts
27
27
Yards / Rush
2.6
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.28
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
14
Passing 1st downs
14
6
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
36%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.77
-1.45
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-6
-15
Sack EPA
-1.08
-4.43
Penalties
7
11
Penalty Yards
52
88
Penalty EPA
-5.31
-9.21
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+95
Home nfelo
1,615
Away nfelo
1,584
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+7.3
Home QB Adjustment
+2.2
Away QB Adjustment
-5.2
Market Regression
+5.4
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-5.2
C. Batch
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+2.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
2
Yards / Game
22
2
Passing Yards / Game
15
17
Rushing Yards / Game
16
1
EPA
EPA / Play
10
2
EPA / Pass
10
4
EPA / Rush
18
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
8
Interceptions / Game
3
10
Fumbles / Game
17
5
Turnover EPA / Game
23
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
5
4th Down Efficiency
19
25
RZ Efficiency
22
4
Steelers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
3
Yards / Game
14
4
Passing Yards / Game
10
12
Rushing Yards / Game
11
3
EPA
EPA / Play
13
6
EPA / Pass
9
8
EPA / Rush
10
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
9
Interceptions / Game
6
7
Fumbles / Game
18
7
Turnover EPA / Game
20
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
12
4th Down Efficiency
27
18
RZ Efficiency
15
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Steelers
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-3-1
O/U