BALRavens
3-3
16
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
57°F
14 mph
19
PITSteelers
1-4
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
57°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
3
3
0
10
16
Steelers
7
3
3
6
19
Spread
-2
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
287
286
Total Plays
61
55
Yards / Play
4.7
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.18
Passing Yards
205
145
Comp/Att
24/34(71%)
17/23(74%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.30
+0.08
Rushing Yards
82
141
Rush Attempts
26
29
Yards / Rush
3.2
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.09
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
17
Passing 1st downs
10
7
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
50%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-2.89
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-10
-15
Sack EPA
-2.35
-1.15
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
67
50
Penalty EPA
-9.24
-6.39
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market54.2%
Model53.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-1
Home nfelo
1,489
Away nfelo
1,561
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+15.2
Home QB Adjustment
+4.8
Away QB Adjustment
-10.5
Market Regression
+7.8
Final Difference
23.1
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-10.5
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+4.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
13
Yards / Game
28
13
Passing Yards / Game
12
14
Rushing Yards / Game
30
21
EPA
EPA / Play
23
13
EPA / Pass
21
10
EPA / Rush
31
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
14
Interceptions / Game
31
29
Fumbles / Game
9
16
Turnover EPA / Game
18
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
20
4th Down Efficiency
23
17
RZ Efficiency
31
19
Steelers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
11
Yards / Game
20
12
Passing Yards / Game
14
4
Rushing Yards / Game
27
10
EPA
EPA / Play
18
10
EPA / Pass
9
13
EPA / Rush
29
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
4
Interceptions / Game
13
14
Fumbles / Game
17
29
Turnover EPA / Game
16
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
3
4th Down Efficiency
9
23
RZ Efficiency
20
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Steelers
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U