BALRavens
3-3
16
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
024
MINVikings
4-2
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
3
3
3
7
16
Vikings
3
6
9
6
24
Spread
-5
Total
OVER
37.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
208
357
Total Plays
64
64
Yards / Play
3.3
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.01
Passing Yards
144
--
Comp/Att
27/39(69%)
20/31(65%)
Yards / Pass
3.7
--
EPA / Pass
-0.15
-0.00
Rushing Yards
64
169
Rush Attempts
20
33
Yards / Rush
3.2
5.1
EPA / Rush
-0.24
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
17
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
38%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
16
15
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-5.49
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-42
--
Sack EPA
-9.83
--
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
15
47
Penalty EPA
-2.56
-6.97
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model65.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+59
Home nfelo
1,527
Away nfelo
1,497
Home Field
+66.7
Base HFA
+57.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
-10.2
Net QB Adjustment
-37.0
Home QB Adjustment
-63.3
Away QB Adjustment
-26.3
Market Regression
-5.4
Final Difference
110.6
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-26.3
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-63.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
2
Yards / Game
27
2
Passing Yards / Game
31
17
Rushing Yards / Game
10
2
EPA
EPA / Play
14
3
EPA / Pass
20
4
EPA / Rush
14
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
26
Interceptions / Game
17
13
Fumbles / Game
1
32
Turnover EPA / Game
17
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
1
4th Down Efficiency
4
12
RZ Efficiency
9
4
Vikings Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
5
Yards / Game
10
12
Passing Yards / Game
26
12
Rushing Yards / Game
8
16
EPA
EPA / Play
11
2
EPA / Pass
9
2
EPA / Rush
26
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
25
Interceptions / Game
6
1
Fumbles / Game
11
4
Turnover EPA / Game
23
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
8
4th Down Efficiency
31
11
RZ Efficiency
12
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Vikings
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U