NOSaints
3-4
41
TBD
Levi's Stadium
70°F
023
SF49ers
1-6
TBD
Levi's Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
14
17
0
10
41
49ers
3
17
3
0
23
Spread
-5.5
Total
OVER
53
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
571
486
Total Plays
82
57
Yards / Play
7.0
8.5
EPA / Play
+0.24
-0.05
Passing Yards
323
393
Comp/Att
28/39(72%)
24/39(62%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
10.1
EPA / Pass
+0.46
+0.05
Rushing Yards
248
93
Rush Attempts
42
17
Yards / Rush
5.9
5.5
EPA / Rush
+0.17
-0.57
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
29
19
Passing 1st downs
14
15
Rushing 1st downs
14
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
65%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
11
2
3rd Down Attempts
17
9
Red Zone %
60%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
--
-19.23
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
--
-5
Sack EPA
-0.55
-1.57
Penalties
4
9
Penalty Yards
40
78
Penalty EPA
-3.75
-11.74
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market68.5%
Model63.1%
Spread Pick
49ers+5.5
Expected Value
+5.0%
Cover Probability
55.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-47
Home nfelo
1,372
Away nfelo
1,489
Home Field
+93.5
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.4
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-23.2
Home QB Adjustment
+0.7
Away QB Adjustment
+24.0
Market Regression
-24.8
Final Difference
-93.1
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+24.0
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+0.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
32
Yards / Game
1
32
Passing Yards / Game
1
27
Rushing Yards / Game
15
32
EPA
EPA / Play
7
29
EPA / Pass
6
29
EPA / Rush
7
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
3
Interceptions / Game
18
22
Fumbles / Game
13
5
Turnover EPA / Game
6
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
29
4th Down Efficiency
2
22
RZ Efficiency
2
28
49ers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
31
Yards / Game
31
26
Passing Yards / Game
29
28
Rushing Yards / Game
4
14
EPA
EPA / Play
29
28
EPA / Pass
30
27
EPA / Rush
10
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
28
Interceptions / Game
11
28
Fumbles / Game
29
2
Turnover EPA / Game
9
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
27
4th Down Efficiency
13
10
RZ Efficiency
4
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
5-5
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
49ers
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U