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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ bears week 7, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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NO logo
NOSaints
5-1
36
TBD
Soldier Field
54°F
6 mph
25
CHIBears
3-2
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
54°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
3
14
10
34
Bears
7
3
0
15
25

Spread

NO logo
+4.5

Total

OVER
37

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
424
254
Total Plays
74
64
Yards / Play
5.7
4.0
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.18
Passing Yards
273
237
Comp/Att
23/38(61%)
34/55(62%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
4.3
EPA / Pass
+0.28
-0.03
Rushing Yards
151
17
Rush Attempts
35
7
Yards / Rush
4.3
2.4
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-1.73
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
24
16
Passing 1st downs
14
16
Rushing 1st downs
9
--
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
47%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
57%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
7
2
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-10.78
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-8
-16
Sack EPA
-2.02
-4.13
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
35
10
Penalty EPA
-2.91
-2.19

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CHI logo
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+90
Home nfelo
1,568
Away nfelo
1,624
Home Field
+87.5
Base HFA
+53.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+15.3
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+18.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+58.2
Home QB Adjustment
-5.7
Away QB Adjustment
-63.9
Market Regression
+10.7
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5

Quarterbacks

T. Bridgewater headshot

T. Bridgewater

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-63.9
Value
Ptile
12/10
3.3
75
12/20
9.6
96
12/27
-4.8
16
01/03
-9.1
3
01/10
-3.8
23
12/30
-5.6
15
09/22
2.8
71
09/29
-6.3
15
10/06
7.5
91
10/13
-1.0
47
M. Trubisky headshot

M. Trubisky

Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
-5.7
Value
Ptile
11/18
-1.8
34
12/09
-9.1
6
12/16
4.2
75
12/23
1.2
54
12/30
1.7
59
01/06
0.9
52
09/05
-8.2
8
09/15
-3.0
31
09/23
1.3
62
09/29
-5.6
17

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Bears Defense
Saints logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
5
4
Yards / Game
9
8
Passing Yards / Game
29
11
Rushing Yards / Game
16
9

EPA

EPA / Play
5
6
EPA / Pass
4
11
EPA / Rush
14
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
12
Interceptions / Game
4
25
Fumbles / Game
1
14
Turnover EPA / Game
32
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
6
4th Down Efficiency
24
23
RZ Efficiency
13
11
Bears Offense vs Saints Defense
Bears logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
29
14
Yards / Game
29
10
Passing Yards / Game
18
20
Rushing Yards / Game
27
4

EPA

EPA / Play
28
8
EPA / Pass
24
13
EPA / Rush
29
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
29
Interceptions / Game
16
16
Fumbles / Game
4
9
Turnover EPA / Game
22
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
8
4th Down Efficiency
29
11
RZ Efficiency
24
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/23
3
W
L
O
12/30
-19
L
L
O
01/13
6
W
L
U
01/20
-3
L
L
U
09/09
2
W
L
O
09/15
-18
L
L
U
09/22
6
W
W
O
09/29
2
W
W
U
10/06
7
W
W
O
10/13
7
W
W
U
CHI logo

Bears

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/09
9
W
W
U
12/16
7
W
W
U
12/23
5
W
W
U
12/30
14
W
W
U
01/06
-1
L
L
U
09/05
-7
L
L
U
09/15
2
W
L
U
09/23
16
W
W
O
09/29
10
W
W
U
10/06
-3
L
L
O