NOSaints
5-1
36
TBD
Soldier Field
54°F
6 mph
25
CHIBears
3-2
TBD
Soldier Field
54°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
3
14
10
34
Bears
7
3
0
15
25
Spread
+4.5
Total
OVER
37
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
424
254
Total Plays
74
64
Yards / Play
5.7
4.0
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.18
Passing Yards
273
237
Comp/Att
23/38(61%)
34/55(62%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
4.3
EPA / Pass
+0.28
-0.03
Rushing Yards
151
17
Rush Attempts
35
7
Yards / Rush
4.3
2.4
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-1.73
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
16
Passing 1st downs
14
16
Rushing 1st downs
9
--
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
47%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
57%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
7
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-10.78
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-8
-16
Sack EPA
-2.02
-4.13
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
35
10
Penalty EPA
-2.91
-2.19
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+90
Home nfelo
1,568
Away nfelo
1,624
Home Field
+87.5
Base HFA
+53.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+15.3
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+18.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+58.2
Home QB Adjustment
-5.7
Away QB Adjustment
-63.9
Market Regression
+10.7
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-63.9
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-5.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
4
Yards / Game
9
8
Passing Yards / Game
29
11
Rushing Yards / Game
16
9
EPA
EPA / Play
5
6
EPA / Pass
4
11
EPA / Rush
14
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
12
Interceptions / Game
4
25
Fumbles / Game
1
14
Turnover EPA / Game
32
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
6
4th Down Efficiency
24
23
RZ Efficiency
13
11
Bears Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
14
Yards / Game
29
10
Passing Yards / Game
18
20
Rushing Yards / Game
27
4
EPA
EPA / Play
28
8
EPA / Pass
24
13
EPA / Rush
29
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
29
Interceptions / Game
16
16
Fumbles / Game
4
9
Turnover EPA / Game
22
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
8
4th Down Efficiency
29
11
RZ Efficiency
24
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bears
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U