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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ bears week 8, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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NO logo
NOSaints
4-2
26
TBD
Soldier Field
40°F
20 mph
23
CHIBears
5-2
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
40°F
20 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Saints
3
7
6
7
3
26
Bears
3
10
0
10
0
23

Spread

CHI logo
+5.5

Total

OVER
41

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
394
329
Total Plays
72
69
Yards / Play
5.5
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.09
Passing Yards
272
233
Comp/Att
31/41(76%)
28/41(68%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
5.7
EPA / Pass
+0.20
-0.05
Rushing Yards
122
96
Rush Attempts
30
23
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
23
18
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
15%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
25%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.26
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-8
-39
Sack EPA
-1.24
-7.94
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
45
53
Penalty EPA
-6.81
-5.67

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market68.5%
Model68.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-122
Home nfelo
1,476
Away nfelo
1,595
Home Field
+8.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-11.9
Home QB Adjustment
-0.8
Away QB Adjustment
+11.2
Market Regression
-25.9
Final Difference
-135.0
Model Spread
+5.5

Quarterbacks

D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+11.2
Value
Ptile
12/16
12.1
99
12/22
3.2
73
12/29
4.1
79
01/05
0.0
52
09/13
-0.8
40
09/21
1.8
57
09/27
7.9
91
10/04
-1.2
36
10/12
3.1
68
10/25
8.1
92
N. Foles headshot

N. Foles

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-0.8
Value
Ptile
01/06
1.1
54
01/13
-1.9
33
09/08
-3.2
30
11/17
2.4
69
11/24
0.1
52
12/01
-10.4
4
10/04
-0.8
39
10/08
-1.4
34
10/18
-0.5
42
10/26
-5.3
14

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Bears Defense
Saints logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
5
13
Yards / Game
12
11
Passing Yards / Game
21
22
Rushing Yards / Game
7
14

EPA

EPA / Play
12
10
EPA / Pass
13
20
EPA / Rush
6
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
17
Interceptions / Game
6
28
Fumbles / Game
26
21
Turnover EPA / Game
18
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
11
4th Down Efficiency
6
18
RZ Efficiency
5
6
Bears Offense vs Saints Defense
Bears logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
23
3
Yards / Game
28
2
Passing Yards / Game
14
18
Rushing Yards / Game
26
3

EPA

EPA / Play
22
3
EPA / Pass
24
5
EPA / Rush
20
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
25
Interceptions / Game
26
5
Fumbles / Game
9
26
Turnover EPA / Game
20
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
5
4th Down Efficiency
14
15
RZ Efficiency
21
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/16
27
W
W
U
12/22
10
W
W
O
12/29
32
W
W
O
01/05
-6
L
L
U
09/13
11
W
W
O
09/21
-10
L
L
O
09/27
-7
L
L
O
10/04
6
W
W
O
10/12
3
W
L
O
10/25
3
W
L
O
CHI logo

Bears

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/15
-8
L
L
U
12/22
-23
L
L
U
12/29
2
W
L
O
09/13
4
W
W
O
09/20
4
W
L
U
09/27
4
W
W
O
10/04
-8
L
L
U
10/08
1
W
W
U
10/18
7
W
W
U
10/26
-14
L
L
U