NOSaints
4-2
26
TBD
Soldier Field
40°F
20 mph
23
CHIBears
5-2
TBD
Soldier Field
40°F
20 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Saints
3
7
6
7
3
26
Bears
3
10
0
10
0
23
Spread
+5.5
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
394
329
Total Plays
72
69
Yards / Play
5.5
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.09
Passing Yards
272
233
Comp/Att
31/41(76%)
28/41(68%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
5.7
EPA / Pass
+0.20
-0.05
Rushing Yards
122
96
Rush Attempts
30
23
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
18
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
15%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
25%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.26
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-8
-39
Sack EPA
-1.24
-7.94
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
45
53
Penalty EPA
-6.81
-5.67
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.5%
Model68.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-122
Home nfelo
1,476
Away nfelo
1,595
Home Field
+8.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-11.9
Home QB Adjustment
-0.8
Away QB Adjustment
+11.2
Market Regression
-25.9
Final Difference
-135.0
Model Spread
+5.5
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+11.2
N. Foles
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-0.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
13
Yards / Game
12
11
Passing Yards / Game
21
22
Rushing Yards / Game
7
14
EPA
EPA / Play
12
10
EPA / Pass
13
20
EPA / Rush
6
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
17
Interceptions / Game
6
28
Fumbles / Game
26
21
Turnover EPA / Game
18
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
11
4th Down Efficiency
6
18
RZ Efficiency
5
6
Bears Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
3
Yards / Game
28
2
Passing Yards / Game
14
18
Rushing Yards / Game
26
3
EPA
EPA / Play
22
3
EPA / Pass
24
5
EPA / Rush
20
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
25
Interceptions / Game
26
5
Fumbles / Game
9
26
Turnover EPA / Game
20
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
5
4th Down Efficiency
14
15
RZ Efficiency
21
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U
Bears
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U