NOSaints
7-1
51
TBD
Paycor Stadium
39°F
6 mph
14
CINBengals
5-3
TBD
Paycor Stadium
39°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
28
10
6
51
Bengals
7
0
0
7
14
Spread
-6
Total
OVER
53
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
509
284
Total Plays
74
43
Yards / Play
6.9
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.49
-0.21
Passing Yards
--
174
Comp/Att
22/27(81%)
14/23(61%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.6
EPA / Pass
+0.82
-0.52
Rushing Yards
244
110
Rush Attempts
47
16
Yards / Rush
5.2
6.9
EPA / Rush
+0.24
+0.31
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
33
13
Passing 1st downs
13
9
Rushing 1st downs
18
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
58%
0%
3rd Down Conversions
7
--
3rd Down Attempts
12
6
Red Zone %
83%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
5
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-11.64
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-24
Sack EPA
--
-7.60
Penalties
1
4
Penalty Yards
--
26
Penalty EPA
--
-3.33
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model67.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-95
Home nfelo
1,495
Away nfelo
1,651
Home Field
+84.8
Base HFA
+57.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.6
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-24.5
Home QB Adjustment
+1.1
Away QB Adjustment
+25.6
Market Regression
-34.5
Final Difference
-126.2
Model Spread
+5.0
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+25.6
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+1.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
30
Yards / Game
8
32
Passing Yards / Game
21
10
Rushing Yards / Game
9
29
EPA
EPA / Play
2
29
EPA / Pass
2
29
EPA / Rush
13
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
19
Interceptions / Game
4
20
Fumbles / Game
13
19
Turnover EPA / Game
23
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
32
4th Down Efficiency
2
26
RZ Efficiency
4
25
Bengals Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
14
Yards / Game
26
12
Passing Yards / Game
22
17
Rushing Yards / Game
21
2
EPA
EPA / Play
18
11
EPA / Pass
18
21
EPA / Rush
19
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
30
Interceptions / Game
17
15
Fumbles / Game
1
7
Turnover EPA / Game
24
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
23
4th Down Efficiency
18
7
RZ Efficiency
3
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bengals
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U