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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ bengals week 10, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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NO logo
NOSaints
7-1
51
TBD
Paycor Stadium
39°F
6 mph
14
CINBengals
5-3
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
39°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
28
10
6
51
Bengals
7
0
0
7
14

Spread

NO logo
-6

Total

OVER
53

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
509
284
Total Plays
74
43
Yards / Play
6.9
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.49
-0.21
Passing Yards
--
174
Comp/Att
22/27(81%)
14/23(61%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.6
EPA / Pass
+0.82
-0.52
Rushing Yards
244
110
Rush Attempts
47
16
Yards / Rush
5.2
6.9
EPA / Rush
+0.24
+0.31
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
33
13
Passing 1st downs
13
9
Rushing 1st downs
18
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
58%
0%
3rd Down Conversions
7
--
3rd Down Attempts
12
6
Red Zone %
83%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
5
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
1
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-11.64
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-24
Sack EPA
--
-7.60
Penalties
1
4
Penalty Yards
--
26
Penalty EPA
--
-3.33

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market69.8%
Model67.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-94
Home nfelo
1,493
Away nfelo
1,649
Home Field
+85.8
Base HFA
+58.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.8
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.5
Net QB Adjustment
-24.5
Home QB Adjustment
+1.1
Away QB Adjustment
+25.6
Market Regression
-34.2
Final Difference
-125.9
Model Spread
+5.0

Quarterbacks

D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+25.6
Value
Ptile
01/07
5.2
85
01/14
2.0
67
09/09
13.4
99
09/16
2.9
69
09/23
16.4
100
09/30
-3.2
26
10/08
10.6
97
10/21
4.4
77
10/28
-1.2
38
11/04
11.7
98
A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+1.1
Value
Ptile
12/24
-3.3
29
12/31
2.2
68
09/09
1.7
59
09/13
7.5
91
09/23
-3.2
26
09/30
4.0
74
10/07
-0.9
41
10/14
-0.2
45
10/21
-6.6
11
10/28
0.6
50

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Bengals Defense
Saints logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
3
30
Yards / Game
8
32
Passing Yards / Game
21
10
Rushing Yards / Game
9
29

EPA

EPA / Play
2
29
EPA / Pass
2
29
EPA / Rush
13
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
19
Interceptions / Game
4
20
Fumbles / Game
13
19
Turnover EPA / Game
23
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
32
4th Down Efficiency
2
26
RZ Efficiency
4
25
Bengals Offense vs Saints Defense
Bengals logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
17
14
Yards / Game
26
12
Passing Yards / Game
22
17
Rushing Yards / Game
21
2

EPA

EPA / Play
18
11
EPA / Pass
18
21
EPA / Rush
19
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
30
Interceptions / Game
17
15
Fumbles / Game
1
7
Turnover EPA / Game
24
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
23
4th Down Efficiency
18
7
RZ Efficiency
3
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/07
5
W
L
O
01/14
-5
L
W
O
09/09
-8
L
L
O
09/16
3
W
L
U
09/23
6
W
W
O
09/30
15
W
W
U
10/08
24
W
W
O
10/21
1
W
W
U
10/28
10
W
W
U
11/04
10
W
W
O
CIN logo

Bengals

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/24
9
W
W
U
12/31
4
W
W
O
09/09
11
W
W
O
09/13
11
W
W
O
09/23
-10
L
L
O
09/30
1
W
W
O
10/07
10
W
W
U
10/14
-7
L
L
U
10/21
-35
L
L
U
10/28
3
W
L
O