NOSaints
5-2
38
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
77°F
17 mph
3
TBBuccaneers
6-2
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
77°F
17 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
14
17
0
7
38
Buccaneers
0
0
0
3
3
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
420
194
Total Plays
73
46
Yards / Play
5.8
4.2
EPA / Play
+0.23
-0.56
Passing Yards
282
186
Comp/Att
29/35(83%)
22/38(58%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
4.9
EPA / Pass
+0.35
-0.61
Rushing Yards
138
8
Rush Attempts
37
5
Yards / Rush
3.7
1.6
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
13
Passing 1st downs
15
10
Rushing 1st downs
11
--
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
64%
11%
3rd Down Conversions
9
1
3rd Down Attempts
14
9
Red Zone %
71%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
5
--
Red Zone Attempts
7
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-10.81
-9.13
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
--
-23
Sack EPA
-6.08
-3.74
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
--
39
Penalty EPA
--
-5.58
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+33
Home nfelo
1,607
Away nfelo
1,591
Home Field
+4.5
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+12.9
Home QB Adjustment
+27.6
Away QB Adjustment
+14.7
Market Regression
-0.5
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+14.7
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+27.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
7
Yards / Game
12
8
Passing Yards / Game
21
21
Rushing Yards / Game
7
1
EPA
EPA / Play
12
6
EPA / Pass
13
6
EPA / Rush
6
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
30
Interceptions / Game
6
3
Fumbles / Game
26
10
Turnover EPA / Game
18
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
17
4th Down Efficiency
6
13
RZ Efficiency
5
11
Buccaneers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
3
Yards / Game
9
2
Passing Yards / Game
12
18
Rushing Yards / Game
25
3
EPA
EPA / Play
5
3
EPA / Pass
5
5
EPA / Rush
21
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
25
Interceptions / Game
15
5
Fumbles / Game
4
26
Turnover EPA / Game
22
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
5
4th Down Efficiency
13
15
RZ Efficiency
11
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
9-1
O/U
Buccaneers
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U