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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ buccaneers week 11, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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NO logo
NOSaints
7-2
34
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
55°F
4 mph
17
TBBuccaneers
3-6
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
55°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
13
7
7
1
28
Buccaneers
0
7
10
0
17

Spread

NO logo
-5.5

Total

OVER
50.5

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
328
334
Total Plays
64
61
Yards / Play
5.1
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.17
-0.19
Passing Yards
219
298
Comp/Att
28/35(80%)
30/51(59%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.27
-0.20
Rushing Yards
109
36
Rush Attempts
28
8
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
21
21
Passing 1st downs
14
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
5
3rd Down %
54%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
4
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-17.58
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-9
-15
Sack EPA
-2.23
-3.49
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
76
55
Penalty EPA
-8.13
-6.94

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market68.5%
Model68.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-139
Home nfelo
1,446
Away nfelo
1,629
Home Field
+54.2
Base HFA
+50.3
Divisional Adj
-22.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+17.6
Time Adj
+9.0
Net QB Adjustment
-10.2
Home QB Adjustment
-10.8
Away QB Adjustment
-0.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-135.0
Model Spread
+5.5

Quarterbacks

D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
-0.7
Value
Ptile
11/29
-5.1
18
12/09
1.0
54
12/17
-5.3
17
12/23
3.3
71
01/13
2.2
64
01/20
-0.1
45
09/09
6.0
87
09/15
-7.2
10
10/27
8.7
94
11/10
-5.2
19
J. Winston headshot

J. Winston

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-10.8
Value
Ptile
12/30
7.6
91
09/08
-9.8
5
09/12
-2.3
36
09/22
1.3
62
09/29
7.9
93
10/06
-5.7
17
10/13
-12.3
2
10/27
-1.6
42
11/03
3.8
78
11/10
-2.3
36

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Saints logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
5
29
Yards / Game
9
15
Passing Yards / Game
29
31
Rushing Yards / Game
16
1

EPA

EPA / Play
5
11
EPA / Pass
4
7
EPA / Rush
14
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
11
Interceptions / Game
4
18
Fumbles / Game
1
2
Turnover EPA / Game
32
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
4
4th Down Efficiency
24
19
RZ Efficiency
13
5
Buccaneers Offense vs Saints Defense
Buccaneers logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
4
14
Yards / Game
3
10
Passing Yards / Game
1
20
Rushing Yards / Game
24
4

EPA

EPA / Play
19
8
EPA / Pass
14
13
EPA / Rush
26
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
29
Interceptions / Game
32
16
Fumbles / Game
22
9
Turnover EPA / Game
1
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
8
4th Down Efficiency
11
11
RZ Efficiency
4
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/20
-3
L
L
U
09/09
2
W
L
O
09/15
-18
L
L
U
09/22
6
W
W
O
09/29
2
W
W
U
10/06
7
W
W
O
10/13
7
W
W
U
10/20
11
W
W
O
10/27
22
W
W
U
11/10
-17
L
L
U
TB logo

Buccaneers

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/30
-2
L
W
O
09/08
-14
L
L
U
09/12
6
W
W
U
09/22
-1
L
L
O
09/29
15
W
W
O
10/06
-7
L
L
O
10/13
-11
L
L
O
10/27
-4
L
L
O
11/03
-6
L
L
O
11/10
3
W
L
O