NOSaints
7-2
34
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
55°F
4 mph
17
TBBuccaneers
3-6
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
55°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
13
7
7
1
28
Buccaneers
0
7
10
0
17
Spread
-5.5
Total
OVER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
328
334
Total Plays
64
61
Yards / Play
5.1
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.17
-0.19
Passing Yards
219
298
Comp/Att
28/35(80%)
30/51(59%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.27
-0.20
Rushing Yards
109
36
Rush Attempts
28
8
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
21
Passing 1st downs
14
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
5
3rd Down %
54%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
4
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-17.58
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-9
-15
Sack EPA
-2.23
-3.49
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
76
55
Penalty EPA
-8.13
-6.94
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.5%
Model68.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-137
Home nfelo
1,449
Away nfelo
1,630
Home Field
+54.2
Base HFA
+50.3
Divisional Adj
-22.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+17.6
Time Adj
+9.0
Net QB Adjustment
-10.2
Home QB Adjustment
-10.8
Away QB Adjustment
-0.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-135.0
Model Spread
+5.5
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
-0.7
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-10.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
29
Yards / Game
9
15
Passing Yards / Game
29
31
Rushing Yards / Game
16
1
EPA
EPA / Play
5
11
EPA / Pass
4
7
EPA / Rush
14
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
11
Interceptions / Game
4
18
Fumbles / Game
1
2
Turnover EPA / Game
32
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
4
4th Down Efficiency
24
19
RZ Efficiency
13
5
Buccaneers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
14
Yards / Game
3
10
Passing Yards / Game
1
20
Rushing Yards / Game
24
4
EPA
EPA / Play
19
8
EPA / Pass
14
13
EPA / Rush
26
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
29
Interceptions / Game
32
16
Fumbles / Game
22
9
Turnover EPA / Game
1
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
8
4th Down Efficiency
11
11
RZ Efficiency
4
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Buccaneers
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
8-2
O/U