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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ buccaneers week 14, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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NO logo
NOSaints
10-2
28
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
71°F
7 mph
14
TBBuccaneers
5-7
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
71°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
3
8
17
28
Buccaneers
7
7
0
0
14

Spread

NO logo
-9.5

Total

UNDER
55

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
300
279
Total Plays
63
65
Yards / Play
4.8
4.3
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.28
Passing Yards
198
174
Comp/Att
24/31(77%)
18/38(47%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
4.6
EPA / Pass
+0.04
-0.09
Rushing Yards
102
105
Rush Attempts
31
23
Yards / Rush
3.3
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
19
20
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
50%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.94
-1.33
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-3
-39
Sack EPA
-5.26
-7.59
Penalties
6
10
Penalty Yards
51
84
Penalty EPA
-6.35
-7.46

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5

Win Probability

Market79.1%
Model79.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-203
Home nfelo
1,447
Away nfelo
1,704
Home Field
+62.4
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
-8.5
Home QB Adjustment
+3.3
Away QB Adjustment
+11.8
Market Regression
-29.1
Final Difference
-231.2
Model Spread
+9.5

Quarterbacks

D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+11.8
Value
Ptile
09/23
16.4
100
09/30
-3.2
26
10/08
10.6
97
10/21
4.4
77
10/28
-1.2
38
11/04
11.7
98
11/11
10.2
96
11/18
10.7
97
11/22
-0.3
44
11/29
-5.1
18
J. Winston headshot

J. Winston

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+3.3
Value
Ptile
12/03
-2.9
33
12/10
-1.4
43
12/18
7.3
91
12/24
1.4
62
12/31
0.7
57
10/14
7.2
91
10/21
1.0
53
10/28
-11.8
2
11/25
7.6
91
12/02
2.3
64

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Saints logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
3
31
Yards / Game
8
27
Passing Yards / Game
21
32
Rushing Yards / Game
9
24

EPA

EPA / Play
2
31
EPA / Pass
2
31
EPA / Rush
13
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
14
Interceptions / Game
4
26
Fumbles / Game
13
26
Turnover EPA / Game
23
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
22
4th Down Efficiency
2
7
RZ Efficiency
4
32
Buccaneers Offense vs Saints Defense
Buccaneers logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
11
14
Yards / Game
2
12
Passing Yards / Game
1
17
Rushing Yards / Game
28
2

EPA

EPA / Play
12
11
EPA / Pass
9
21
EPA / Rush
26
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
30
Interceptions / Game
32
15
Fumbles / Game
25
7
Turnover EPA / Game
2
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
23
4th Down Efficiency
5
7
RZ Efficiency
15
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

9-1
SU
9-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/23
6
W
W
O
09/30
15
W
W
U
10/08
24
W
W
O
10/21
1
W
W
U
10/28
10
W
W
U
11/04
10
W
W
O
11/11
37
W
W
O
11/18
41
W
W
U
11/22
14
W
W
U
11/29
-3
L
L
U
TB logo

Buccaneers

3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/24
-3
L
L
O
09/30
-38
L
L
O
10/14
-5
L
L
O
10/21
3
W
L
U
10/28
-3
L
W
O
11/04
-14
L
L
O
11/11
-13
L
L
U
11/18
-3
L
P
O
11/25
18
W
W
U
12/02
7
W
W
U