NOSaints
10-2
28
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
71°F
7 mph
14
TBBuccaneers
5-7
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
71°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
3
8
17
28
Buccaneers
7
7
0
0
14
Spread
-9.5
Total
UNDER
55
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
300
279
Total Plays
63
65
Yards / Play
4.8
4.3
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.28
Passing Yards
198
174
Comp/Att
24/31(77%)
18/38(47%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
4.6
EPA / Pass
+0.04
-0.09
Rushing Yards
102
105
Rush Attempts
31
23
Yards / Rush
3.3
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
20
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
50%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.94
-1.33
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-3
-39
Sack EPA
-5.26
-7.59
Penalties
6
10
Penalty Yards
51
84
Penalty EPA
-6.35
-7.46
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market79.1%
Model79.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-205
Home nfelo
1,448
Away nfelo
1,706
Home Field
+61.6
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-8.5
Home QB Adjustment
+3.3
Away QB Adjustment
+11.8
Market Regression
-29.1
Final Difference
-231.2
Model Spread
+9.5
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+11.8
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+3.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
31
Yards / Game
8
27
Passing Yards / Game
21
32
Rushing Yards / Game
9
24
EPA
EPA / Play
2
31
EPA / Pass
2
31
EPA / Rush
13
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
14
Interceptions / Game
4
26
Fumbles / Game
13
26
Turnover EPA / Game
23
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
22
4th Down Efficiency
2
7
RZ Efficiency
4
32
Buccaneers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
14
Yards / Game
2
12
Passing Yards / Game
1
17
Rushing Yards / Game
28
2
EPA
EPA / Play
12
11
EPA / Pass
9
21
EPA / Rush
26
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
30
Interceptions / Game
32
15
Fumbles / Game
25
7
Turnover EPA / Game
2
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
23
4th Down Efficiency
5
7
RZ Efficiency
15
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
9-1
SU
9-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Buccaneers
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U