NOSaints
-
19
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
031
ARICardinals
-
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
3
7
3
6
19
Cardinals
7
7
3
14
31
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
408
427
Total Plays
70
57
Yards / Play
5.8
7.5
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.20
Passing Yards
354
--
Comp/Att
30/48(63%)
19/32(59%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
--
EPA / Pass
+0.04
+0.51
Rushing Yards
54
120
Rush Attempts
20
25
Yards / Rush
2.7
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.35
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
25
Passing 1st downs
12
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
5
3rd Down %
39%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
18
10
Red Zone %
25%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.95
-4.47
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-1
--
Sack EPA
-1.37
--
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
73
30
Penalty EPA
-7.40
-5.58
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+69
Home nfelo
1,485
Away nfelo
1,517
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+5.8
Home QB Adjustment
+11.0
Away QB Adjustment
+5.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+5.1
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+11.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
13
Yards / Game
1
7
Passing Yards / Game
3
27
Rushing Yards / Game
24
8
EPA
EPA / Play
8
11
EPA / Pass
5
8
EPA / Rush
14
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
27
Interceptions / Game
11
4
Fumbles / Game
6
8
Turnover EPA / Game
20
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
12
4th Down Efficiency
3
12
RZ Efficiency
9
15
Cardinals Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
32
Yards / Game
2
31
Passing Yards / Game
2
21
Rushing Yards / Game
12
31
EPA
EPA / Play
2
32
EPA / Pass
3
32
EPA / Rush
11
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
24
Interceptions / Game
23
26
Fumbles / Game
28
4
Turnover EPA / Game
11
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
22
4th Down Efficiency
6
31
RZ Efficiency
10
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Cardinals
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-5-1
O/U