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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ cardinals week 15, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NO logo
NOSaints
5-8
48
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
41
ARICardinals
5-7
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
10
14
3
21
48
Cardinals
7
7
7
14
35

Spread

NO logo
+3

Total

OVER
48.5

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
488
425
Total Plays
83
56
Yards / Play
5.9
7.6
EPA / Play
+0.26
+0.17
Passing Yards
358
309
Comp/Att
37/48(77%)
28/40(70%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
7.7
EPA / Pass
+0.27
+0.15
Rushing Yards
130
116
Rush Attempts
32
15
Yards / Rush
4.1
7.7
EPA / Rush
+0.06
+0.40
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
33
26
Passing 1st downs
20
17
Rushing 1st downs
10
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
64%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
9
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
80%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-9.29
-9.22
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-31
-9
Sack EPA
-10.77
-1.42
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
46
52
Penalty EPA
-4.99
-8.61

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ARI logo
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model64.1%
Spread Pick
ARI logo
Cardinals-3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+7.0%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+140
Home nfelo
1,573
Away nfelo
1,511
Home Field
+88.8
Base HFA
+58.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
-11.1
Home QB Adjustment
-10.5
Away QB Adjustment
+0.7
Market Regression
+7.1
Final Difference
101.1
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+0.7
Value
Ptile
10/02
-4.2
18
10/16
11.8
99
10/23
10.0
96
10/30
6.3
87
11/06
7.3
91
11/13
5.4
84
11/17
3.4
75
11/27
10.9
98
12/04
-3.1
26
12/11
-6.0
12
C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-10.5
Value
Ptile
09/25
-13.2
0
10/02
-2.0
34
10/17
1.1
57
10/23
0.2
50
10/30
1.0
56
11/13
0.2
50
11/20
-5.8
13
11/27
-1.6
36
12/04
4.2
80
12/11
-7.9
6

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Saints logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
2
14
Yards / Game
1
2
Passing Yards / Game
1
18
Rushing Yards / Game
15
9

EPA

EPA / Play
7
2
EPA / Pass
6
3
EPA / Rush
7
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
7
Interceptions / Game
18
14
Fumbles / Game
13
5
Turnover EPA / Game
6
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
14
4th Down Efficiency
2
13
RZ Efficiency
2
17
Cardinals Offense vs Saints Defense
Cardinals logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
6
31
Yards / Game
8
26
Passing Yards / Game
5
28
Rushing Yards / Game
17
14

EPA

EPA / Play
20
28
EPA / Pass
21
27
EPA / Rush
20
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
28
Interceptions / Game
26
28
Fumbles / Game
29
2
Turnover EPA / Game
7
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
27
4th Down Efficiency
14
10
RZ Efficiency
5
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

5-5
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/02
1
W
W
O
10/16
3
W
W
O
10/23
-6
L
P
U
10/30
5
W
W
U
11/06
18
W
W
O
11/13
-2
L
L
U
11/17
-3
L
W
U
11/27
28
W
W
O
12/04
-15
L
L
U
12/11
-5
L
L
U
ARI logo

Cardinals

4-5-1
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/02
-4
L
L
U
10/06
12
W
W
O
10/17
25
W
W
U
10/23
0
T
L
U
10/30
-10
L
L
O
11/13
3
W
L
U
11/20
-6
L
L
O
11/27
-19
L
L
O
12/04
8
W
W
O
12/11
-3
L
L
O