NOSaints
5-8
48
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
041
ARICardinals
5-7
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
10
14
3
21
48
Cardinals
7
7
7
14
35
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
488
425
Total Plays
83
56
Yards / Play
5.9
7.6
EPA / Play
+0.26
+0.17
Passing Yards
358
309
Comp/Att
37/48(77%)
28/40(70%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
7.7
EPA / Pass
+0.27
+0.15
Rushing Yards
130
116
Rush Attempts
32
15
Yards / Rush
4.1
7.7
EPA / Rush
+0.06
+0.40
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
33
26
Passing 1st downs
20
17
Rushing 1st downs
10
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
64%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
9
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
80%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-9.29
-9.22
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-31
-9
Sack EPA
-10.77
-1.42
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
46
52
Penalty EPA
-4.99
-8.61
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model64.0%
Spread Pick
Cardinals-3.0
Expected Value
+7.0%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+138
Home nfelo
1,572
Away nfelo
1,511
Home Field
+87.7
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-11.1
Home QB Adjustment
-10.5
Away QB Adjustment
+0.7
Market Regression
+7.2
Final Difference
99.8
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+0.7
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-10.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
14
Yards / Game
1
2
Passing Yards / Game
1
18
Rushing Yards / Game
15
9
EPA
EPA / Play
7
2
EPA / Pass
6
3
EPA / Rush
7
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
7
Interceptions / Game
18
14
Fumbles / Game
13
5
Turnover EPA / Game
6
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
14
4th Down Efficiency
2
13
RZ Efficiency
2
17
Cardinals Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
31
Yards / Game
8
26
Passing Yards / Game
5
28
Rushing Yards / Game
17
14
EPA
EPA / Play
20
28
EPA / Pass
21
27
EPA / Rush
20
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
28
Interceptions / Game
26
28
Fumbles / Game
29
2
Turnover EPA / Game
7
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
27
4th Down Efficiency
14
10
RZ Efficiency
5
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
5-5
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Cardinals
4-5-1
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U