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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ chiefs week 5, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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NO logo
NOSaints
2-2
13
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
70°F
1 mph
26
KCChiefs
4-0
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
70°F
1 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
7
0
6
13
Chiefs
7
9
0
10
26

Spread

KC logo
-5

Total

UNDER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
220
460
Total Plays
51
80
Yards / Play
4.3
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.12
+0.11
Passing Yards
174
321
Comp/Att
20/35(57%)
28/39(72%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
8.2
EPA / Pass
-0.08
+0.08
Rushing Yards
46
139
Rush Attempts
15
39
Yards / Rush
3.1
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.16
+0.19
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
14
28
Passing 1st downs
11
15
Rushing 1st downs
1
11
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
40%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
100%
29%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
7
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.33
-7.74
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-8
-10
Sack EPA
-1.69
-2.20
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
70
55
Penalty EPA
-7.23
-5.43

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market67.1%
Model71.2%
Spread Pick
KC logo
Chiefs-5.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+4.9%
Cover Probability
54.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+194
Home nfelo
1,666
Away nfelo
1,522
Home Field
+62.3
Base HFA
+46.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-12.7
Home QB Adjustment
-9.9
Away QB Adjustment
+2.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
157.2
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.8
Value
Ptile
12/03
-2.7
31
12/10
-1.8
37
12/17
5.0
82
12/21
4.3
77
12/31
1.8
62
01/07
6.7
89
09/08
5.6
82
09/15
3.7
74
09/22
-5.2
15
09/29
-0.7
44
P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
-9.9
Value
Ptile
12/25
-1.9
36
12/31
1.2
56
01/13
7.6
92
01/21
6.5
89
01/28
4.8
80
02/11
8.5
95
09/05
1.3
58
09/15
-2.1
34
09/22
1.4
58
09/29
-2.8
29

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Saints logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
24
6
Yards / Game
21
9
Passing Yards / Game
21
17
Rushing Yards / Game
15
10

EPA

EPA / Play
26
16
EPA / Pass
25
25
EPA / Rush
10
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
15
Interceptions / Game
17
17
Fumbles / Game
4
26
Turnover EPA / Game
19
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
24
4th Down Efficiency
17
9
RZ Efficiency
12
11
Chiefs Offense vs Saints Defense
Chiefs logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
12
18
Yards / Game
19
30
Passing Yards / Game
19
28
Rushing Yards / Game
26
30

EPA

EPA / Play
10
13
EPA / Pass
10
9
EPA / Rush
12
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
20
Interceptions / Game
14
12
Fumbles / Game
5
27
Turnover EPA / Game
22
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
21
4th Down Efficiency
6
10
RZ Efficiency
21
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/03
-5
L
L
O
12/10
22
W
W
U
12/17
18
W
W
U
12/21
-8
L
L
O
12/31
10
W
W
U
01/07
31
W
W
O
09/08
37
W
W
O
09/15
25
W
W
O
09/22
-3
L
L
U
09/29
-2
L
W
O
KC logo

Chiefs

10-0
SU
8-2
ATS
2-6-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/31
8
W
W
U
01/07
1
W
W
U
01/13
19
W
W
U
01/21
3
W
W
O
01/28
7
W
W
U
02/11
3
W
W
P
09/05
7
W
W
P
09/15
1
W
L
O
09/22
5
W
W
U
09/29
7
W
L
U