NOSaints
2-2
13
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
70°F
1 mph
26
KCChiefs
4-0
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
70°F
1 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
7
0
6
13
Chiefs
7
9
0
10
26
Spread
-5
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
220
460
Total Plays
51
80
Yards / Play
4.3
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.12
+0.11
Passing Yards
174
321
Comp/Att
20/35(57%)
28/39(72%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
8.2
EPA / Pass
-0.08
+0.08
Rushing Yards
46
139
Rush Attempts
15
39
Yards / Rush
3.1
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.16
+0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
28
Passing 1st downs
11
15
Rushing 1st downs
1
11
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
40%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
100%
29%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
7
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.33
-7.74
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-8
-10
Sack EPA
-1.69
-2.20
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
70
55
Penalty EPA
-7.23
-5.43
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model71.7%
Spread Pick
Chiefs-5.0
Expected Value
+4.9%
Cover Probability
54.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+203
Home nfelo
1,672
Away nfelo
1,518
Home Field
+62.4
Base HFA
+46.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-12.7
Home QB Adjustment
-10.0
Away QB Adjustment
+2.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
161.7
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.7
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
-10.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
6
Yards / Game
21
9
Passing Yards / Game
21
17
Rushing Yards / Game
15
10
EPA
EPA / Play
26
16
EPA / Pass
25
25
EPA / Rush
10
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
15
Interceptions / Game
17
17
Fumbles / Game
4
26
Turnover EPA / Game
19
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
24
4th Down Efficiency
17
9
RZ Efficiency
12
11
Chiefs Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
18
Yards / Game
19
30
Passing Yards / Game
19
28
Rushing Yards / Game
26
30
EPA
EPA / Play
10
13
EPA / Pass
10
9
EPA / Rush
12
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
20
Interceptions / Game
14
12
Fumbles / Game
5
27
Turnover EPA / Game
22
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
21
4th Down Efficiency
6
10
RZ Efficiency
21
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U