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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ chiefs week 7, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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NO logo
NOSaints
2-3
21
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
68°F
9 mph
27
KCChiefs
3-2
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
68°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
0
7
7
21
Chiefs
8
7
3
3
21

Spread

NO logo
+6.5

Total

UNDER
51

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
463
326
Total Plays
71
52
Yards / Play
6.5
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.20
Passing Yards
359
--
Comp/Att
37/48(77%)
17/24(71%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
--
EPA / Pass
+0.26
+0.45
Rushing Yards
104
112
Rush Attempts
22
28
Yards / Rush
4.7
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
27
20
Passing 1st downs
20
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
64%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
9
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
9
Red Zone %
75%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
--
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-13.23
--
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-8
--
Sack EPA
-1.61
--
Penalties
10
4
Penalty Yards
75
30
Penalty EPA
-8.04
-0.88

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+173
Home nfelo
1,580
Away nfelo
1,469
Home Field
+78.0
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-16.4
Home QB Adjustment
+0.7
Away QB Adjustment
+17.1
Market Regression
-15.5
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+17.1
Value
Ptile
12/06
3.5
75
12/13
5.2
83
12/21
8.0
94
12/27
8.0
94
01/03
5.9
87
09/11
11.6
98
09/18
0.6
54
09/26
5.5
84
10/02
-4.2
18
10/16
11.8
99
A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+0.7
Value
Ptile
12/20
-0.5
48
12/27
1.1
57
01/03
-0.6
47
01/09
-0.3
49
01/16
2.8
71
09/11
6.7
89
09/18
-5.5
13
09/25
1.7
61
10/02
-1.9
34
10/16
0.2
50

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Saints logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
2
6
Yards / Game
1
23
Passing Yards / Game
1
17
Rushing Yards / Game
15
27

EPA

EPA / Play
7
9
EPA / Pass
6
7
EPA / Rush
7
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
23
Interceptions / Game
18
3
Fumbles / Game
13
1
Turnover EPA / Game
6
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
28
4th Down Efficiency
2
15
RZ Efficiency
2
4
Chiefs Offense vs Saints Defense
Chiefs logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
13
31
Yards / Game
21
26
Passing Yards / Game
21
28
Rushing Yards / Game
19
14

EPA

EPA / Play
12
28
EPA / Pass
16
27
EPA / Rush
12
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
28
Interceptions / Game
8
28
Fumbles / Game
23
2
Turnover EPA / Game
22
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
27
4th Down Efficiency
4
10
RZ Efficiency
28
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/06
-3
L
W
O
12/13
7
W
W
U
12/21
-8
L
L
O
12/27
11
W
W
O
01/03
3
W
W
U
09/11
-1
L
L
O
09/18
-3
L
W
U
09/26
-13
L
L
O
10/02
1
W
W
O
10/16
3
W
W
O
KC logo

Chiefs

7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/20
20
W
W
O
12/27
4
W
L
U
01/03
6
W
L
U
01/09
30
W
W
U
01/16
-7
L
L
O
09/11
6
W
L
O
09/18
-7
L
L
U
09/25
21
W
W
U
10/02
-29
L
L
O
10/16
16
W
W
U