NOSaints
2-3
21
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
68°F
9 mph
27
KCChiefs
3-2
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
68°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
0
7
7
21
Chiefs
8
7
3
3
21
Spread
+6.5
Total
UNDER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
463
326
Total Plays
71
52
Yards / Play
6.5
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.20
Passing Yards
359
--
Comp/Att
37/48(77%)
17/24(71%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
--
EPA / Pass
+0.26
+0.45
Rushing Yards
104
112
Rush Attempts
22
28
Yards / Rush
4.7
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
20
Passing 1st downs
20
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
64%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
9
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
9
Red Zone %
75%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-13.23
--
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-8
--
Sack EPA
-1.61
--
Penalties
10
4
Penalty Yards
75
30
Penalty EPA
-8.04
-0.88
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+171
Home nfelo
1,579
Away nfelo
1,469
Home Field
+77.0
Base HFA
+57.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-16.4
Home QB Adjustment
+0.7
Away QB Adjustment
+17.1
Market Regression
-15.5
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+17.1
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+0.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
6
Yards / Game
1
23
Passing Yards / Game
1
17
Rushing Yards / Game
15
27
EPA
EPA / Play
7
9
EPA / Pass
6
7
EPA / Rush
7
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
23
Interceptions / Game
18
3
Fumbles / Game
13
1
Turnover EPA / Game
6
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
28
4th Down Efficiency
2
15
RZ Efficiency
2
4
Chiefs Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
31
Yards / Game
21
26
Passing Yards / Game
21
28
Rushing Yards / Game
19
14
EPA
EPA / Play
12
28
EPA / Pass
16
27
EPA / Rush
12
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
28
Interceptions / Game
8
28
Fumbles / Game
23
2
Turnover EPA / Game
22
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
27
4th Down Efficiency
4
10
RZ Efficiency
28
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Chiefs
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U