NOSaints
10-2
21
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
57°F
10 mph
24
PHIEagles
3-8
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
57°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
0
14
7
21
Eagles
0
17
0
7
24
Spread
+7.5
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
358
413
Total Plays
63
66
Yards / Play
5.7
6.3
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.02
Passing Yards
262
--
Comp/Att
28/38(74%)
17/30(57%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
--
EPA / Pass
+0.08
+0.02
Rushing Yards
96
246
Rush Attempts
20
36
Yards / Rush
4.8
6.8
EPA / Rush
+0.02
+0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
21
Passing 1st downs
15
7
Rushing 1st downs
5
11
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
42%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-8.22
-3.45
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-29
--
Sack EPA
-7.97
--
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
52
27
Penalty EPA
-9.56
-4.04
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.9%
Model74.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-177
Home nfelo
1,460
Away nfelo
1,799
Home Field
+7.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+154.5
Home QB Adjustment
-27.0
Away QB Adjustment
-181.5
Market Regression
-31.0
Final Difference
-189.9
Model Spread
+7.5
Quarterbacks
T. Hill
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-181.5
Value
Ptile
J. Hurts
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
-27.0
No recent game data available
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
20
Yards / Game
12
17
Passing Yards / Game
21
29
Rushing Yards / Game
7
22
EPA
EPA / Play
12
12
EPA / Pass
13
15
EPA / Rush
6
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
1
Interceptions / Game
6
29
Fumbles / Game
26
6
Turnover EPA / Game
18
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
8
4th Down Efficiency
6
3
RZ Efficiency
5
28
Eagles Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
3
Yards / Game
25
2
Passing Yards / Game
23
18
Rushing Yards / Game
10
3
EPA
EPA / Play
29
3
EPA / Pass
31
5
EPA / Rush
14
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
25
Interceptions / Game
31
5
Fumbles / Game
23
26
Turnover EPA / Game
5
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
5
4th Down Efficiency
26
15
RZ Efficiency
13
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Eagles
3-6-1
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U