NOSaints
-
34
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
037
ATLFalcons
-
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Saints
6
14
0
14
0
34
Falcons
0
10
14
10
3
37
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
472
568
Total Plays
70
69
Yards / Play
6.7
8.2
EPA / Play
+0.29
+0.28
Passing Yards
--
445
Comp/Att
29/42(69%)
31/43(72%)
Yards / Pass
--
10.3
EPA / Pass
+0.22
+0.40
Rushing Yards
139
123
Rush Attempts
28
25
Yards / Rush
5.0
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.15
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
30
28
Passing 1st downs
17
21
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
62%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-9.09
-5.18
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-3
Sack EPA
--
-0.94
Penalties
3
10
Penalty Yards
27
96
Penalty EPA
-3.89
-10.91
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-92
Home nfelo
1,472
Away nfelo
1,597
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-12.8
Home QB Adjustment
-0.5
Away QB Adjustment
+12.3
Market Regression
-27.4
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+12.3
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-0.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
27
Yards / Game
1
32
Passing Yards / Game
5
8
Rushing Yards / Game
13
21
EPA
EPA / Play
6
28
EPA / Pass
8
29
EPA / Rush
7
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
20
Interceptions / Game
25
13
Fumbles / Game
28
16
Turnover EPA / Game
4
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
32
4th Down Efficiency
13
19
RZ Efficiency
7
21
Falcons Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
28
Yards / Game
7
31
Passing Yards / Game
2
25
Rushing Yards / Game
24
29
EPA
EPA / Play
11
32
EPA / Pass
11
30
EPA / Rush
22
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
23
Interceptions / Game
17
22
Fumbles / Game
15
30
Turnover EPA / Game
14
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
31
4th Down Efficiency
14
19
RZ Efficiency
6
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U
Falcons
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U