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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ falcons week 4, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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NO logo
NOSaints
2-1
24
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0
26
ATLFalcons
1-2
ATL logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
7
3
7
24
Falcons
7
4
3
6
20

Spread

NO logo
+3

Total

OVER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
366
315
Total Plays
70
51
Yards / Play
5.2
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.12
Passing Yards
235
227
Comp/Att
28/36(78%)
21/35(60%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.00
-0.03
Rushing Yards
131
88
Rush Attempts
33
15
Yards / Rush
4.0
5.9
EPA / Rush
+0.13
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
25
14
Passing 1st downs
11
9
Rushing 1st downs
12
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
54%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
75%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-8.65
+2.07
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-4
-11
Sack EPA
-1.05
-1.89
Penalties
6
9
Penalty Yards
60
76
Penalty EPA
-3.68
-9.19

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model52.6%
Spread Pick
NO logo
Saints+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+8.8%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-21
Home nfelo
1,470
Away nfelo
1,533
Home Field
+33.9
Base HFA
+46.6
Divisional Adj
-21.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+8.3
Net QB Adjustment
+7.9
Home QB Adjustment
+12.2
Away QB Adjustment
+4.4
Market Regression
+12.6
Final Difference
17.9
Model Spread
-1.0

Quarterbacks

D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+4.4
Value
Ptile
11/26
-1.4
40
12/03
-2.7
31
12/10
-1.8
37
12/17
5.0
82
12/21
4.3
77
12/31
1.8
62
01/07
6.7
89
09/08
5.6
82
09/15
3.8
74
09/22
-5.2
15
K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+12.2
Value
Ptile
09/14
10.0
97
09/24
3.7
74
10/01
-5.3
18
10/08
1.1
55
10/15
-2.2
34
10/23
9.3
96
10/29
4.9
81
09/08
-6.5
10
09/16
2.1
63
09/22
-1.7
36

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Falcons Defense
Saints logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
24
23
Yards / Game
21
22
Passing Yards / Game
21
3
Rushing Yards / Game
15
15

EPA

EPA / Play
26
23
EPA / Pass
25
28
EPA / Rush
10
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
25
Interceptions / Game
17
16
Fumbles / Game
4
27
Turnover EPA / Game
19
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
31
4th Down Efficiency
17
13
RZ Efficiency
12
28
Falcons Offense vs Saints Defense
Falcons logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
14
18
Yards / Game
6
30
Passing Yards / Game
7
28
Rushing Yards / Game
10
30

EPA

EPA / Play
15
13
EPA / Pass
15
9
EPA / Rush
11
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
20
Interceptions / Game
29
12
Fumbles / Game
6
27
Turnover EPA / Game
8
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
21
4th Down Efficiency
5
10
RZ Efficiency
20
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/26
-9
L
L
U
12/03
-5
L
L
O
12/10
22
W
W
U
12/17
18
W
W
U
12/21
-8
L
L
O
12/31
10
W
W
U
01/07
31
W
W
O
09/08
37
W
W
O
09/15
25
W
W
O
09/22
-3
L
L
U
ATL logo

Falcons

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/26
9
W
W
U
12/03
5
W
W
U
12/10
-4
L
L
O
12/17
-2
L
L
U
12/24
19
W
W
U
12/31
-20
L
L
O
01/07
-31
L
L
O
09/08
-8
L
L
U
09/16
1
W
W
U
09/22
-5
L
L
U