NOSaints
2-1
24
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
026
ATLFalcons
1-2
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
7
3
7
24
Falcons
7
4
3
6
20
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
366
315
Total Plays
70
51
Yards / Play
5.2
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.12
Passing Yards
235
227
Comp/Att
28/36(78%)
21/35(60%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.00
-0.03
Rushing Yards
131
88
Rush Attempts
33
15
Yards / Rush
4.0
5.9
EPA / Rush
+0.13
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
14
Passing 1st downs
11
9
Rushing 1st downs
12
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
54%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
75%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-8.65
+2.07
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-4
-11
Sack EPA
-1.05
-1.89
Penalties
6
9
Penalty Yards
60
76
Penalty EPA
-3.68
-9.19
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model52.8%
Spread Pick
Saints+3.0
Expected Value
+8.4%
Cover Probability
53.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-19
Home nfelo
1,469
Away nfelo
1,530
Home Field
+33.9
Base HFA
+46.6
Divisional Adj
-21.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+8.3
Net QB Adjustment
+7.9
Home QB Adjustment
+12.2
Away QB Adjustment
+4.4
Market Regression
+12.8
Final Difference
19.1
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+4.4
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+12.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
23
Yards / Game
21
22
Passing Yards / Game
21
3
Rushing Yards / Game
15
15
EPA
EPA / Play
26
23
EPA / Pass
25
28
EPA / Rush
10
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
25
Interceptions / Game
17
16
Fumbles / Game
4
27
Turnover EPA / Game
19
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
31
4th Down Efficiency
17
13
RZ Efficiency
12
28
Falcons Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
18
Yards / Game
6
30
Passing Yards / Game
7
28
Rushing Yards / Game
10
30
EPA
EPA / Play
15
13
EPA / Pass
15
9
EPA / Rush
11
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
20
Interceptions / Game
29
12
Fumbles / Game
6
27
Turnover EPA / Game
8
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
21
4th Down Efficiency
5
10
RZ Efficiency
20
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Falcons
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U