NOSaints
5-5
15
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
024
ATLFalcons
4-6
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
3
6
3
3
15
Falcons
1
7
0
10
18
Spread
+1
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
444
396
Total Plays
67
62
Yards / Play
6.6
6.4
EPA / Play
-0.06
+0.04
Passing Yards
296
--
Comp/Att
24/38(63%)
13/21(62%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
--
EPA / Pass
-0.03
-0.13
Rushing Yards
148
228
Rush Attempts
28
41
Yards / Rush
5.3
5.6
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
25
Passing 1st downs
13
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
15
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
43%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
8
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-16.36
-10.16
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-8
--
Sack EPA
-1.02
--
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
50
35
Penalty EPA
-6.24
-3.48
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-42
Home nfelo
1,448
Away nfelo
1,496
Home Field
+10.6
Base HFA
+44.5
Divisional Adj
-20.1
Home Bye Adj
+12.8
Away Bye Adj
-34.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+8.0
Net QB Adjustment
-5.7
Home QB Adjustment
-6.0
Away QB Adjustment
-0.3
Market Regression
+0.2
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
-0.3
D. Ridder
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-6.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
17
Yards / Game
13
10
Passing Yards / Game
4
10
Rushing Yards / Game
21
19
EPA
EPA / Play
19
12
EPA / Pass
14
14
EPA / Rush
24
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
20
Interceptions / Game
10
29
Fumbles / Game
10
21
Turnover EPA / Game
26
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
3
4th Down Efficiency
22
12
RZ Efficiency
18
4
Falcons Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
6
Yards / Game
17
13
Passing Yards / Game
27
16
Rushing Yards / Game
8
22
EPA
EPA / Play
27
3
EPA / Pass
23
5
EPA / Rush
25
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
24
Interceptions / Game
27
3
Fumbles / Game
22
8
Turnover EPA / Game
6
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
4
4th Down Efficiency
29
3
RZ Efficiency
30
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
5-5
SU
2-7-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Falcons
4-6
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U