NOSaints
9-2
26
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
018
ATLFalcons
3-8
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
10
3
6
26
Falcons
0
9
0
9
18
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
279
348
Total Plays
49
86
Yards / Play
5.7
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.12
-0.22
Passing Yards
--
259
Comp/Att
18/31(58%)
35/51(69%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.1
EPA / Pass
-0.04
-0.32
Rushing Yards
95
89
Rush Attempts
18
26
Yards / Rush
5.3
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
27
Passing 1st downs
10
18
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
5
3rd Down %
20%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
16
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-14.90
Sacks
--
9
Sack Yards
--
-53
Sack EPA
--
-11.62
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
121
18
Penalty EPA
-7.42
-1.93
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-209
Home nfelo
1,434
Away nfelo
1,634
Home Field
+17.9
Base HFA
+48.5
Divisional Adj
-21.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-8.7
Net QB Adjustment
-27.2
Home QB Adjustment
-20.0
Away QB Adjustment
+7.3
Market Regression
-5.3
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+7.3
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-20.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
22
Yards / Game
9
20
Passing Yards / Game
29
1
Rushing Yards / Game
16
15
EPA
EPA / Play
5
21
EPA / Pass
4
24
EPA / Rush
13
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
6
Interceptions / Game
4
18
Fumbles / Game
1
14
Turnover EPA / Game
32
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
21
4th Down Efficiency
24
26
RZ Efficiency
14
19
Falcons Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
14
Yards / Game
5
10
Passing Yards / Game
2
20
Rushing Yards / Game
30
4
EPA
EPA / Play
13
8
EPA / Pass
15
13
EPA / Rush
23
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
29
Interceptions / Game
21
16
Fumbles / Game
18
9
Turnover EPA / Game
10
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
8
4th Down Efficiency
4
11
RZ Efficiency
25
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Falcons
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U