NOSaints
9-3
17
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
020
ATLFalcons
7-5
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
3
7
7
0
17
Falcons
3
7
0
10
20
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
51.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
306
343
Total Plays
52
65
Yards / Play
5.9
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.03
+0.01
Passing Yards
256
211
Comp/Att
26/35(74%)
15/27(56%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
7.8
EPA / Pass
+0.04
-0.14
Rushing Yards
50
132
Rush Attempts
15
37
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.00
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
26
Passing 1st downs
16
11
Rushing 1st downs
2
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
9
3rd Down %
30%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.04
-12.10
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-15
-10
Sack EPA
-4.02
-1.86
Penalties
11
4
Penalty Yards
82
35
Penalty EPA
-9.36
-3.32
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+29
Home nfelo
1,625
Away nfelo
1,612
Home Field
+20.5
Base HFA
+55.5
Divisional Adj
-25.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-9.9
Net QB Adjustment
-4.2
Home QB Adjustment
-5.4
Away QB Adjustment
-1.2
Market Regression
+20.3
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
-1.2
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-5.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
6
Yards / Game
2
8
Passing Yards / Game
6
20
Rushing Yards / Game
6
9
EPA
EPA / Play
2
21
EPA / Pass
3
18
EPA / Rush
3
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
26
Interceptions / Game
6
30
Fumbles / Game
13
18
Turnover EPA / Game
26
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
17
4th Down Efficiency
1
29
RZ Efficiency
6
2
Falcons Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
14
Yards / Game
11
19
Passing Yards / Game
10
32
Rushing Yards / Game
14
14
EPA
EPA / Play
7
15
EPA / Pass
7
14
EPA / Rush
20
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
31
Interceptions / Game
8
4
Fumbles / Game
13
27
Turnover EPA / Game
27
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
27
4th Down Efficiency
24
10
RZ Efficiency
26
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Falcons
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U