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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ falcons week 18, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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NO logo
NOSaints
6-10
+3.5
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0
-3.5
ATLFalcons
7-9
ATL logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+100
Home nfelo
1,459
Away nfelo
1,409
Home Field
+32.4
Base HFA
+44.5
Divisional Adj
-20.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+8.0
Net QB Adjustment
+17.3
Home QB Adjustment
+28.2
Away QB Adjustment
+10.8
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

T. Shough headshot

T. Shough

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+10.8
Value
Ptile
11/02
-2.7
32
11/09
2.8
71
11/23
-4.7
19
11/30
-1.9
37
12/07
-1.0
42
12/14
0.4
55
12/21
1.2
59
12/28
5.4
86
K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+28.2
Value
Ptile
12/01
-8.0
6
12/08
-1.6
37
12/16
-7.6
6
10/26
-3.0
29
11/23
-2.2
35
11/30
-0.1
50
12/07
-7.6
6
12/11
7.2
93
12/21
-0.8
44
12/29
-1.0
42

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Falcons Defense
Saints logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
29
20
Yards / Game
23
14
Passing Yards / Game
8
25
Rushing Yards / Game
30
26

EPA

EPA / Play
29
20
EPA / Pass
27
13
EPA / Rush
31
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
30
Interceptions / Game
16
6
Fumbles / Game
27
24
Turnover EPA / Game
8
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
20
4th Down Efficiency
32
17
RZ Efficiency
32
10
Falcons Offense vs Saints Defense
Falcons logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
24
16
Yards / Game
13
9
Passing Yards / Game
17
6
Rushing Yards / Game
5
23

EPA

EPA / Play
24
10
EPA / Pass
19
12
EPA / Rush
15
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
8
Interceptions / Game
3
19
Fumbles / Game
28
3
Turnover EPA / Game
22
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
3
4th Down Efficiency
24
11
RZ Efficiency
9
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/19
-12
L
L
U
10/26
-20
L
L
U
11/02
-24
L
L
U
11/09
10
W
W
U
11/23
-14
L
L
U
11/30
-4
L
W
U
12/07
4
W
W
O
12/14
3
W
W
U
12/21
23
W
W
U
12/28
8
W
W
O
ATL logo

Falcons

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/26
-24
L
L
U
11/02
-1
L
W
O
11/09
-6
L
W
O
11/16
-3
L
L
O
11/23
14
W
W
U
11/30
-3
L
L
O
12/07
-28
L
L
O
12/11
1
W
W
O
12/21
7
W
W
U
12/29
3
W
W
O