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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ falcons week 18, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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NO logo
NOSaints
6-10
17
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0
19
ATLFalcons
7-9
ATL logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
7
3
7
17
Falcons
7
3
3
6
19

Spread

NO logo
+3.5

Total

UNDER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
340
208
Total Plays
65
61
Yards / Play
5.2
3.4
EPA / Play
-0.22
-0.16
Passing Yards
232
159
Comp/Att
23/35(66%)
18/32(56%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
5.0
EPA / Pass
-0.23
-0.17
Rushing Yards
108
49
Rush Attempts
26
25
Yards / Rush
4.2
2.0
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.41
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
16
14
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
31%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
14
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-11.82
-5.61
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-27
-21
Sack EPA
-6.45
-6.54
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
40
42
Penalty EPA
-4.92
-5.67

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+104
Home nfelo
1,462
Away nfelo
1,407
Home Field
+32.4
Base HFA
+44.4
Divisional Adj
-20.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+8.0
Net QB Adjustment
+17.3
Home QB Adjustment
+28.2
Away QB Adjustment
+10.8
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

T. Shough headshot

T. Shough

Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
+10.8
Value
Ptile
11/02
-2.6
32
11/09
2.8
71
11/23
-4.7
20
11/30
-1.9
38
12/07
-1.0
43
12/14
0.5
55
12/21
1.2
60
12/28
5.4
86
K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+28.2
Value
Ptile
12/01
-7.9
6
12/08
-1.6
37
12/16
-7.6
6
10/26
-2.9
29
11/23
-2.1
36
11/30
-0.1
51
12/07
-7.6
7
12/11
7.3
93
12/21
-0.8
44
12/29
-1.0
43

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Falcons Defense
Saints logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
28
19
Yards / Game
23
15
Passing Yards / Game
7
25
Rushing Yards / Game
28
24

EPA

EPA / Play
29
15
EPA / Pass
27
13
EPA / Rush
31
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
29
Interceptions / Game
16
7
Fumbles / Game
28
23
Turnover EPA / Game
7
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
18
4th Down Efficiency
31
20
RZ Efficiency
32
12
Falcons Offense vs Saints Defense
Falcons logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
23
14
Yards / Game
14
9
Passing Yards / Game
18
5
Rushing Yards / Game
7
19

EPA

EPA / Play
23
10
EPA / Pass
19
12
EPA / Rush
21
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
9
Interceptions / Game
4
20
Fumbles / Game
28
3
Turnover EPA / Game
21
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
3
4th Down Efficiency
21
13
RZ Efficiency
10
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/19
-12
L
L
U
10/26
-20
L
L
U
11/02
-24
L
L
U
11/09
10
W
W
U
11/23
-14
L
L
U
11/30
-4
L
W
U
12/07
4
W
W
O
12/14
3
W
W
U
12/21
23
W
W
U
12/28
8
W
W
O
ATL logo

Falcons

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/26
-24
L
L
U
11/02
-1
L
W
O
11/09
-6
L
W
O
11/16
-3
L
L
O
11/23
14
W
W
U
11/30
-3
L
L
O
12/07
-28
L
L
O
12/11
1
W
W
O
12/21
7
W
W
U
12/29
3
W
W
O