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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ giants week 2, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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NO logo
NOSaints
0-1
13
TBD
MetLife Stadium
80°F
5 mph
16
NYGGiants
1-0
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
80°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
3
0
10
13
Giants
0
1
3
6
10

Spread

NO logo
+4

Total

UNDER
54

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
288
417
Total Plays
59
75
Yards / Play
4.9
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.22
-0.15
Passing Yards
247
353
Comp/Att
29/44(66%)
32/41(78%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
8.6
EPA / Pass
-0.02
+0.03
Rushing Yards
41
64
Rush Attempts
13
32
Yards / Rush
3.2
2.0
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.39
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
16
22
Passing 1st downs
15
15
Rushing 1st downs
1
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
23%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
--
-11.74
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-16
-15
Sack EPA
-3.98
-6.01
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
76
25
Penalty EPA
-6.89
-1.92

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYG logo
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+79
Home nfelo
1,492
Away nfelo
1,461
Home Field
+69.0
Base HFA
+58.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.5
Net QB Adjustment
-21.0
Home QB Adjustment
+3.2
Away QB Adjustment
+24.2
Market Regression
-15.1
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+24.2
Value
Ptile
11/01
18.2
100
11/08
6.6
89
11/15
-3.5
25
11/29
-4.1
21
12/06
3.5
75
12/13
5.2
83
12/21
8.0
94
12/27
8.0
94
01/03
5.9
87
09/11
11.6
98
E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+3.2
Value
Ptile
11/01
10.7
98
11/08
-1.8
37
11/15
3.1
74
11/29
-6.8
8
12/06
-2.8
30
12/14
11.7
99
12/20
6.6
89
12/27
-10.1
1
01/03
0.8
55
09/11
0.7
55

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Giants Defense
Saints logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
2
4
Yards / Game
1
13
Passing Yards / Game
1
15
Rushing Yards / Game
15
2

EPA

EPA / Play
7
7
EPA / Pass
6
6
EPA / Rush
7
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
30
Interceptions / Game
18
8
Fumbles / Game
13
19
Turnover EPA / Game
6
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
3
4th Down Efficiency
2
15
RZ Efficiency
2
1
Giants Offense vs Saints Defense
Giants logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
27
31
Yards / Game
23
26
Passing Yards / Game
24
28
Rushing Yards / Game
29
14

EPA

EPA / Play
28
28
EPA / Pass
24
27
EPA / Rush
29
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
28
Interceptions / Game
21
28
Fumbles / Game
23
2
Turnover EPA / Game
14
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
27
4th Down Efficiency
14
10
RZ Efficiency
19
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/01
3
W
P
O
11/08
-6
L
L
O
11/15
-33
L
L
O
11/29
-18
L
L
U
12/06
-3
L
W
O
12/13
7
W
W
U
12/21
-8
L
L
O
12/27
11
W
W
O
01/03
3
W
W
U
09/11
-1
L
L
O
NYG logo

Giants

3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/01
-3
L
P
O
11/08
14
W
W
O
11/15
-1
L
W
O
11/29
-6
L
L
U
12/06
-3
L
L
U
12/14
7
W
W
O
12/20
-3
L
W
O
12/27
-32
L
L
O
01/03
-5
L
L
O
09/11
1
W
W
U