NOSaints
0-1
13
TBD
MetLife Stadium
80°F
5 mph
16
NYGGiants
1-0
TBD
MetLife Stadium
80°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
3
0
10
13
Giants
0
1
3
6
10
Spread
+4
Total
UNDER
54
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
288
417
Total Plays
59
75
Yards / Play
4.9
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.22
-0.15
Passing Yards
247
353
Comp/Att
29/44(66%)
32/41(78%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
8.6
EPA / Pass
-0.02
+0.03
Rushing Yards
41
64
Rush Attempts
13
32
Yards / Rush
3.2
2.0
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.39
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
22
Passing 1st downs
15
15
Rushing 1st downs
1
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
23%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
--
-11.74
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-16
-15
Sack EPA
-3.98
-6.01
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
76
25
Penalty EPA
-6.89
-1.92
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+79
Home nfelo
1,493
Away nfelo
1,461
Home Field
+68.2
Base HFA
+57.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-21.0
Home QB Adjustment
+3.2
Away QB Adjustment
+24.2
Market Regression
-15.1
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+24.2
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+3.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
4
Yards / Game
1
13
Passing Yards / Game
1
15
Rushing Yards / Game
15
2
EPA
EPA / Play
7
7
EPA / Pass
6
6
EPA / Rush
7
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
30
Interceptions / Game
18
8
Fumbles / Game
13
19
Turnover EPA / Game
6
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
3
4th Down Efficiency
2
15
RZ Efficiency
2
1
Giants Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
31
Yards / Game
23
26
Passing Yards / Game
24
28
Rushing Yards / Game
29
14
EPA
EPA / Play
28
28
EPA / Pass
24
27
EPA / Rush
29
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
28
Interceptions / Game
21
28
Fumbles / Game
23
2
Turnover EPA / Game
14
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
27
4th Down Efficiency
14
10
RZ Efficiency
19
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Giants
3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-3
O/U