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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ giants week 14, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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NO logo
NOSaints
4-8
14
TBD
MetLife Stadium
54°F
13 mph
11
NYGGiants
2-10
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
54°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
0
7
0
14
Giants
0
3
0
8
11

Spread

NYG logo
+5.5

Total

UNDER
41

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
292
327
Total Plays
66
75
Yards / Play
4.4
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.20
-0.24
Passing Yards
200
215
Comp/Att
20/31(65%)
21/50(42%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
4.3
EPA / Pass
+0.09
-0.22
Rushing Yards
92
112
Rush Attempts
33
23
Yards / Rush
2.8
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.25
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
18
16
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
33%
26%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
19
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.78
-1.48
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-19
-14
Sack EPA
-2.71
-2.89
Penalties
6
12
Penalty Yards
40
112
Penalty EPA
-4.27
-11.08

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market68.5%
Model60.5%
Spread Pick
NYG logo
Giants+5.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+16.1%
Cover Probability
60.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-24
Home nfelo
1,357
Away nfelo
1,422
Home Field
+47.1
Base HFA
+40.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.2
Net QB Adjustment
-5.9
Home QB Adjustment
+19.5
Away QB Adjustment
+25.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-74.1
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+25.5
Value
Ptile
01/07
6.7
89
09/08
5.6
82
09/15
3.8
74
09/22
-5.2
15
09/29
-0.7
44
10/07
-1.2
40
11/03
-0.6
44
11/10
3.8
74
11/17
5.9
84
12/01
1.4
59
P. Lock headshot

P. Lock

Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
+19.5
Value
Ptile
12/13
6.0
83
12/19
-2.1
28
12/27
-4.9
16
01/03
2.1
59
12/26
-4.9
20
01/02
1.5
64
01/08
0.7
58
12/10
-1.5
39
12/18
-1.1
42
11/28
-3.1
27

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Giants Defense
Saints logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
24
20
Yards / Game
21
23
Passing Yards / Game
21
6
Rushing Yards / Game
15
26

EPA

EPA / Play
26
22
EPA / Pass
25
29
EPA / Rush
10
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
10
Interceptions / Game
17
31
Fumbles / Game
4
8
Turnover EPA / Game
19
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
19
4th Down Efficiency
17
16
RZ Efficiency
12
10
Giants Offense vs Saints Defense
Giants logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
31
18
Yards / Game
30
30
Passing Yards / Game
23
28
Rushing Yards / Game
22
30

EPA

EPA / Play
29
13
EPA / Pass
31
9
EPA / Rush
24
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
20
Interceptions / Game
19
12
Fumbles / Game
22
27
Turnover EPA / Game
6
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
21
4th Down Efficiency
19
10
RZ Efficiency
32
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/22
-3
L
L
U
09/29
-2
L
W
O
10/07
-13
L
L
U
10/13
-24
L
L
O
10/17
-23
L
L
O
10/27
-18
L
L
U
11/03
-1
L
L
O
11/10
3
W
W
U
11/17
21
W
W
O
12/01
-7
L
L
U
NYG logo

Giants

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/22
6
W
W
U
09/26
-5
L
W
U
10/06
9
W
W
O
10/13
-10
L
L
U
10/20
-25
L
L
U
10/28
-8
L
L
O
11/03
-5
L
L
O
11/10
-3
L
L
U
11/24
-23
L
L
U
11/28
-7
L
L
O