NOSaints
4-8
14
TBD
MetLife Stadium
54°F
13 mph
11
NYGGiants
2-10
TBD
MetLife Stadium
54°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
0
7
0
14
Giants
0
3
0
8
11
Spread
+5.5
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
292
327
Total Plays
66
75
Yards / Play
4.4
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.20
-0.24
Passing Yards
200
215
Comp/Att
20/31(65%)
21/50(42%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
4.3
EPA / Pass
+0.09
-0.22
Rushing Yards
92
112
Rush Attempts
33
23
Yards / Rush
2.8
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.25
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
16
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
33%
26%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
19
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.78
-1.48
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-19
-14
Sack EPA
-2.71
-2.89
Penalties
6
12
Penalty Yards
40
112
Penalty EPA
-4.27
-11.08
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market68.5%
Model60.5%
Spread Pick
Giants+5.5
Expected Value
+16.1%
Cover Probability
60.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-23
Home nfelo
1,358
Away nfelo
1,423
Home Field
+47.1
Base HFA
+40.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.2
Net QB Adjustment
-5.9
Home QB Adjustment
+19.5
Away QB Adjustment
+25.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-73.7
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+25.5
P. Lock
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+19.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
20
Yards / Game
21
23
Passing Yards / Game
21
6
Rushing Yards / Game
15
26
EPA
EPA / Play
26
22
EPA / Pass
25
29
EPA / Rush
10
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
10
Interceptions / Game
17
31
Fumbles / Game
4
8
Turnover EPA / Game
19
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
19
4th Down Efficiency
17
16
RZ Efficiency
12
10
Giants Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
18
Yards / Game
30
30
Passing Yards / Game
23
28
Rushing Yards / Game
22
30
EPA
EPA / Play
29
13
EPA / Pass
31
9
EPA / Rush
24
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
20
Interceptions / Game
19
12
Fumbles / Game
22
27
Turnover EPA / Game
6
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
21
4th Down Efficiency
19
10
RZ Efficiency
32
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Giants
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U