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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ jets week 14, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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NO logo
NOSaints
5-7
30
TBD
MetLife Stadium
46°F
13 mph
9
NYJJets
3-9
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
46°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
3
7
3
17
30
Jets
0
6
0
3
9

Spread

NO logo
-4.5

Total

UNDER
42

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
344
256
Total Plays
68
62
Yards / Play
5.1
4.1
EPA / Play
+0.15
-0.28
Passing Yards
141
178
Comp/Att
15/21(71%)
19/42(45%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
4.2
EPA / Pass
+0.18
-0.37
Rushing Yards
203
78
Rush Attempts
44
17
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.14
-0.31
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
21
13
Passing 1st downs
8
9
Rushing 1st downs
12
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
40%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
40%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-34
-24
Sack EPA
-4.25
-5.55
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
42
45
Penalty EPA
-4.78
-4.55

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market66.6%
Model66.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-107
Home nfelo
1,328
Away nfelo
1,526
Home Field
+44.6
Base HFA
+37.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+6.8
Net QB Adjustment
+46.1
Home QB Adjustment
-33.2
Away QB Adjustment
-79.3
Market Regression
+17.8
Final Difference
-119.9
Model Spread
+4.5

Quarterbacks

T. Hill headshot

T. Hill

Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-79.3
Value
Ptile
11/22
2.9
66
11/29
-3.5
22
12/06
5.2
79
12/13
0.9
50
12/02
-2.4
35
Z. Wilson headshot

Z. Wilson

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-33.2
Value
Ptile
09/12
-6.8
12
09/19
-11.7
2
09/26
-12.5
1
10/03
-0.3
51
10/10
-8.2
7
10/24
-5.1
19
11/28
-8.1
8
12/05
-1.2
44

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Jets Defense
Saints logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
19
32
Yards / Game
28
32
Passing Yards / Game
31
16
Rushing Yards / Game
16
29

EPA

EPA / Play
28
32
EPA / Pass
24
32
EPA / Rush
27
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
4
Interceptions / Game
12
30
Fumbles / Game
3
18
Turnover EPA / Game
18
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
27
4th Down Efficiency
17
26
RZ Efficiency
16
19
Jets Offense vs Saints Defense
Jets logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
28
4
Yards / Game
26
6
Passing Yards / Game
13
13
Rushing Yards / Game
25
4

EPA

EPA / Play
25
1
EPA / Pass
29
3
EPA / Rush
13
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
18
Interceptions / Game
29
6
Fumbles / Game
7
18
Turnover EPA / Game
9
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
5
4th Down Efficiency
23
5
RZ Efficiency
20
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/26
15
W
W
U
10/03
-6
L
L
O
10/10
11
W
W
O
10/25
3
W
L
U
10/31
9
W
W
O
11/07
-2
L
L
O
11/14
-2
L
W
P
11/21
-11
L
L
O
11/25
-25
L
L
U
12/02
-10
L
L
U
NYJ logo

Jets

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/26
-26
L
L
U
10/03
3
W
W
O
10/10
-7
L
L
O
10/24
-41
L
L
O
10/31
3
W
W
O
11/04
-15
L
L
O
11/14
-28
L
L
O
11/21
-7
L
L
U
11/28
7
W
W
U
12/05
-15
L
L
O