NOSaints
5-7
30
TBD
MetLife Stadium
46°F
13 mph
9
NYJJets
3-9
TBD
MetLife Stadium
46°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
3
7
3
17
30
Jets
0
6
0
3
9
Spread
-4.5
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
344
256
Total Plays
68
62
Yards / Play
5.1
4.1
EPA / Play
+0.15
-0.28
Passing Yards
141
178
Comp/Att
15/21(71%)
19/42(45%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
4.2
EPA / Pass
+0.18
-0.37
Rushing Yards
203
78
Rush Attempts
44
17
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.14
-0.31
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
13
Passing 1st downs
8
9
Rushing 1st downs
12
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
40%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
40%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-34
-24
Sack EPA
-4.25
-5.55
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
42
45
Penalty EPA
-4.78
-4.55
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.6%
Model66.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-111
Home nfelo
1,328
Away nfelo
1,530
Home Field
+44.6
Base HFA
+37.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+6.8
Net QB Adjustment
+46.1
Home QB Adjustment
-33.2
Away QB Adjustment
-79.3
Market Regression
+18.5
Final Difference
-119.9
Model Spread
+4.5
Quarterbacks
T. Hill
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-79.3
Z. Wilson
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-33.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
32
Yards / Game
28
32
Passing Yards / Game
31
16
Rushing Yards / Game
16
29
EPA
EPA / Play
28
32
EPA / Pass
24
32
EPA / Rush
27
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
4
Interceptions / Game
12
30
Fumbles / Game
3
18
Turnover EPA / Game
18
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
27
4th Down Efficiency
17
26
RZ Efficiency
16
19
Jets Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
4
Yards / Game
26
6
Passing Yards / Game
13
13
Rushing Yards / Game
25
4
EPA
EPA / Play
25
1
EPA / Pass
29
3
EPA / Rush
13
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
18
Interceptions / Game
29
6
Fumbles / Game
7
18
Turnover EPA / Game
9
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
5
4th Down Efficiency
23
5
RZ Efficiency
20
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Jets
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U