NOSaints
1-0
20
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
70°F
017
CARPanthers
0-1
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
3
3
7
7
20
Panthers
3
0
3
11
17
Spread
3
P
Total
UNDER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
341
241
Total Plays
74
57
Yards / Play
4.6
4.2
EPA / Play
+0.01
-0.07
Passing Yards
207
141
Comp/Att
22/37(59%)
22/34(65%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
4.1
EPA / Pass
-0.04
-0.33
Rushing Yards
134
100
Rush Attempts
33
19
Yards / Rush
4.1
5.3
EPA / Rush
+0.05
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
14
Passing 1st downs
11
8
Rushing 1st downs
10
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
44%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
14
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.22
-4.77
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-29
-14
Sack EPA
-6.69
-8.33
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
32
35
Penalty EPA
-4.29
-6.43
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-80
Home nfelo
1,434
Away nfelo
1,518
Home Field
+15.9
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
-19.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.7
Net QB Adjustment
-11.9
Home QB Adjustment
-6.1
Away QB Adjustment
+5.8
Market Regression
-43.2
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+5.8
B. Young
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-6.1
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
29
Yards / Game
13
3
Passing Yards / Game
4
1
Rushing Yards / Game
21
23
EPA
EPA / Play
19
27
EPA / Pass
14
17
EPA / Rush
24
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
2
Interceptions / Game
10
29
Fumbles / Game
10
32
Turnover EPA / Game
26
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
14
4th Down Efficiency
22
31
RZ Efficiency
18
28
Panthers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
6
Yards / Game
32
13
Passing Yards / Game
28
16
Rushing Yards / Game
20
22
EPA
EPA / Play
29
3
EPA / Pass
30
5
EPA / Rush
18
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
24
Interceptions / Game
6
3
Fumbles / Game
22
8
Turnover EPA / Game
11
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
4
4th Down Efficiency
21
3
RZ Efficiency
21
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
1-9
O/U
Panthers
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U