NOSaints
2-6
22
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
66°F
7 mph
23
CARPanthers
1-7
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
66°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
6
7
3
6
22
Panthers
0
10
7
6
23
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
427
246
Total Plays
75
51
Yards / Play
5.7
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.04
Passing Yards
230
166
Comp/Att
18/33(55%)
16/27(59%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.07
-0.02
Rushing Yards
197
80
Rush Attempts
41
23
Yards / Rush
4.8
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.18
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
15
Passing 1st downs
12
8
Rushing 1st downs
11
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
33%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
10
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-2.68
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-6
-5
Sack EPA
-1.08
-1.25
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
109
55
Penalty EPA
-10.66
-4.23
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-169
Home nfelo
1,274
Away nfelo
1,451
Home Field
+46.3
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
-19.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.0
Time Adj
+7.7
Net QB Adjustment
-38.5
Home QB Adjustment
-21.9
Away QB Adjustment
+16.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+16.5
B. Young
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-21.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
32
Yards / Game
21
32
Passing Yards / Game
21
21
Rushing Yards / Game
15
32
EPA
EPA / Play
26
32
EPA / Pass
25
31
EPA / Rush
10
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
21
Interceptions / Game
17
25
Fumbles / Game
4
19
Turnover EPA / Game
19
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
32
4th Down Efficiency
17
20
RZ Efficiency
12
29
Panthers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
18
Yards / Game
29
30
Passing Yards / Game
30
28
Rushing Yards / Game
16
30
EPA
EPA / Play
24
13
EPA / Pass
28
9
EPA / Rush
9
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
20
Interceptions / Game
22
12
Fumbles / Game
13
27
Turnover EPA / Game
13
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
21
4th Down Efficiency
26
10
RZ Efficiency
7
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Panthers
1-9
SU
1-9
ATS
6-4
O/U