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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ panthers week 9, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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NO logo
NOSaints
2-6
22
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
66°F
7 mph
23
CARPanthers
1-7
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
66°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
6
7
3
6
22
Panthers
0
10
7
6
23

Spread

CAR logo
+7

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
427
246
Total Plays
75
51
Yards / Play
5.7
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.04
Passing Yards
230
166
Comp/Att
18/33(55%)
16/27(59%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.07
-0.02
Rushing Yards
197
80
Rush Attempts
41
23
Yards / Rush
4.8
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.18
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
25
15
Passing 1st downs
12
8
Rushing 1st downs
11
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
33%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
10
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-2.68
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-6
-5
Sack EPA
-1.08
-1.25
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
109
55
Penalty EPA
-10.66
-4.23

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-169
Home nfelo
1,271
Away nfelo
1,449
Home Field
+47.1
Base HFA
+43.7
Divisional Adj
-19.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.3
Time Adj
+7.8
Net QB Adjustment
-38.5
Home QB Adjustment
-21.9
Away QB Adjustment
+16.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0

Quarterbacks

D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+16.6
Value
Ptile
12/10
-1.8
37
12/17
5.0
82
12/21
4.3
77
12/31
1.8
62
01/07
6.7
89
09/08
5.6
82
09/15
3.8
74
09/22
-5.2
15
09/29
-0.7
44
10/07
-1.2
40
B. Young headshot

B. Young

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-21.9
Value
Ptile
11/26
-4.1
23
12/03
-10.3
3
12/10
-7.8
9
12/17
-3.8
25
12/24
3.9
75
12/31
-13.1
1
01/07
-5.1
19
09/08
-10.0
2
09/15
-6.4
11
10/27
-1.9
35

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Panthers Defense
Saints logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
24
32
Yards / Game
21
32
Passing Yards / Game
21
21
Rushing Yards / Game
15
32

EPA

EPA / Play
26
32
EPA / Pass
25
31
EPA / Rush
10
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
21
Interceptions / Game
17
25
Fumbles / Game
4
19
Turnover EPA / Game
19
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
32
4th Down Efficiency
17
20
RZ Efficiency
12
29
Panthers Offense vs Saints Defense
Panthers logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
23
18
Yards / Game
29
30
Passing Yards / Game
30
28
Rushing Yards / Game
16
30

EPA

EPA / Play
24
13
EPA / Pass
28
9
EPA / Rush
9
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
20
Interceptions / Game
22
12
Fumbles / Game
13
27
Turnover EPA / Game
13
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
21
4th Down Efficiency
26
10
RZ Efficiency
7
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/31
10
W
W
U
01/07
31
W
W
O
09/08
37
W
W
O
09/15
25
W
W
O
09/22
-3
L
L
U
09/29
-2
L
W
O
10/07
-13
L
L
U
10/13
-24
L
L
O
10/17
-23
L
L
O
10/27
-18
L
L
U
CAR logo

Panthers

1-9
SU
1-9
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/31
-26
L
L
U
01/07
-9
L
L
U
09/08
-37
L
L
O
09/15
-23
L
L
U
09/22
14
W
W
O
09/29
-10
L
L
O
10/06
-26
L
L
O
10/13
-18
L
L
O
10/20
-33
L
L
U
10/27
-14
L
L
O