NOSaints
12-3
42
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
63°F
9 mph
10
CARPanthers
5-10
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
63°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
14
15
7
0
36
Panthers
0
3
7
0
10
Spread
-14
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
379
329
Total Plays
67
69
Yards / Play
5.7
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.31
-0.27
Passing Yards
264
288
Comp/Att
20/31(65%)
26/49(53%)
Yards / Pass
8.5
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.63
-0.25
Rushing Yards
115
41
Rush Attempts
35
18
Yards / Rush
3.3
2.3
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.63
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
16
Passing 1st downs
16
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
36%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-15.75
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-3
-11
Sack EPA
-1.40
-3.31
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
--
54
Penalty EPA
--
-6.61
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-14.0
Model
-12.0
Win Probability
Market87.0%
Model83.6%
Spread Pick
Panthers+14.0
Expected Value
+9.0%
Cover Probability
53.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-245
Home nfelo
1,441
Away nfelo
1,647
Home Field
+49.1
Base HFA
+45.6
Divisional Adj
-20.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.9
Time Adj
+8.2
Net QB Adjustment
-88.9
Home QB Adjustment
-62.3
Away QB Adjustment
+26.6
Market Regression
-7.5
Final Difference
-283.4
Model Spread
+12.0
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+26.6
W. Grier
Proj. Value
-5.3
Team Elo Adj
-62.3
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
31
Yards / Game
9
24
Passing Yards / Game
29
26
Rushing Yards / Game
16
30
EPA
EPA / Play
5
25
EPA / Pass
4
17
EPA / Rush
13
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
1
Interceptions / Game
4
10
Fumbles / Game
1
20
Turnover EPA / Game
32
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
21
4th Down Efficiency
24
31
RZ Efficiency
14
29
Panthers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
14
Yards / Game
21
10
Passing Yards / Game
7
20
Rushing Yards / Game
14
4
EPA
EPA / Play
29
8
EPA / Pass
28
13
EPA / Rush
20
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
29
Interceptions / Game
30
16
Fumbles / Game
29
9
Turnover EPA / Game
3
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
8
4th Down Efficiency
12
11
RZ Efficiency
15
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Panthers
2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
7-3
O/U