NOSaints
1-1
28
TBD
Gillette Stadium
73°F
11 mph
13
NEPatriots
1-1
TBD
Gillette Stadium
73°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
7
1
7
22
Patriots
0
3
3
7
13
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
252
300
Total Plays
62
70
Yards / Play
4.1
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.30
Passing Yards
110
251
Comp/Att
13/21(62%)
30/51(59%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
4.9
EPA / Pass
+0.25
-0.33
Rushing Yards
142
49
Rush Attempts
38
17
Yards / Rush
3.7
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
16
Passing 1st downs
9
10
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
46%
37%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
19
Red Zone %
75%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-16.29
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-18
-19
Sack EPA
-4.86
-3.66
Penalties
2
4
Penalty Yards
15
30
Penalty EPA
-2.04
-1.82
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model52.6%
Spread Pick
Saints+3.0
Expected Value
+8.8%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-21
Home nfelo
1,537
Away nfelo
1,615
Home Field
+51.0
Base HFA
+43.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.7
Net QB Adjustment
+6.5
Home QB Adjustment
-10.0
Away QB Adjustment
-16.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
18.2
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-16.6
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-10.0
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
3
Yards / Game
28
7
Passing Yards / Game
31
2
Rushing Yards / Game
16
24
EPA
EPA / Play
28
5
EPA / Pass
24
5
EPA / Rush
27
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
30
Interceptions / Game
12
2
Fumbles / Game
3
16
Turnover EPA / Game
18
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
9
4th Down Efficiency
17
16
RZ Efficiency
16
8
Patriots Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
4
Yards / Game
15
6
Passing Yards / Game
12
13
Rushing Yards / Game
8
4
EPA
EPA / Play
5
1
EPA / Pass
10
3
EPA / Rush
9
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
18
Interceptions / Game
17
6
Fumbles / Game
17
18
Turnover EPA / Game
6
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
5
4th Down Efficiency
1
5
RZ Efficiency
7
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Patriots
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
1-8-1
O/U