NOSaints
2-2
34
TBD
Gillette Stadium
61°F
10 mph
0
NEPatriots
1-3
TBD
Gillette Stadium
61°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
1
14
3
10
28
Patriots
0
0
0
0
0
Spread
+2
Total
UNDER
38.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
304
156
Total Plays
70
51
Yards / Play
4.3
3.1
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.88
Passing Yards
168
111
Comp/Att
18/26(69%)
15/31(48%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
3.6
EPA / Pass
+0.13
-0.85
Rushing Yards
136
45
Rush Attempts
42
18
Yards / Rush
3.2
2.5
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.76
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
8
Passing 1st downs
11
4
Rushing 1st downs
6
1
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
33%
7%
3rd Down Conversions
5
1
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
75%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-16.83
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-15
-21
Sack EPA
-4.37
-2.14
Penalties
12
5
Penalty Yards
86
30
Penalty EPA
-11.61
-2.50
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.2%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+69
Home nfelo
1,509
Away nfelo
1,503
Home Field
+50.6
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.7
Net QB Adjustment
+12.2
Home QB Adjustment
-2.3
Away QB Adjustment
-14.4
Market Regression
-13.3
Final Difference
29.3
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-14.4
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-2.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
14
Yards / Game
13
6
Passing Yards / Game
4
8
Rushing Yards / Game
21
3
EPA
EPA / Play
19
6
EPA / Pass
14
20
EPA / Rush
24
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
9
Interceptions / Game
10
23
Fumbles / Game
10
26
Turnover EPA / Game
26
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
7
4th Down Efficiency
22
20
RZ Efficiency
18
5
Patriots Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
6
Yards / Game
30
13
Passing Yards / Game
31
16
Rushing Yards / Game
25
22
EPA
EPA / Play
32
3
EPA / Pass
31
5
EPA / Rush
22
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
24
Interceptions / Game
30
3
Fumbles / Game
16
8
Turnover EPA / Game
4
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
4
4th Down Efficiency
32
3
RZ Efficiency
11
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
0-10
O/U
Patriots
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U