NOSaints
8-2
20
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
72°F
1 mph
26
LARRams
7-3
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
72°F
1 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
3
0
10
20
Rams
10
7
3
6
26
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
54
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
346
415
Total Plays
52
73
Yards / Play
6.7
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.18
Passing Yards
223
327
Comp/Att
22/32(69%)
28/44(64%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
7.4
EPA / Pass
-0.04
+0.18
Rushing Yards
123
88
Rush Attempts
17
25
Yards / Rush
7.2
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.27
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
24
Passing 1st downs
10
14
Rushing 1st downs
2
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
23%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-1.90
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-23
-27
Sack EPA
-6.13
-5.31
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
112
90
Penalty EPA
-10.19
-10.20
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model58.1%
Spread Pick
Rams-2.5
Expected Value
+5.8%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+113
Home nfelo
1,587
Away nfelo
1,588
Home Field
+85.3
Base HFA
+55.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.5
Time Adj
+10.0
Net QB Adjustment
+28.7
Home QB Adjustment
+32.6
Away QB Adjustment
+3.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
57.1
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+3.9
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+32.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
12
Yards / Game
2
17
Passing Yards / Game
6
11
Rushing Yards / Game
6
27
EPA
EPA / Play
2
7
EPA / Pass
3
5
EPA / Rush
3
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
24
Interceptions / Game
6
7
Fumbles / Game
13
3
Turnover EPA / Game
26
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
14
4th Down Efficiency
1
27
RZ Efficiency
6
24
Rams Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
14
Yards / Game
8
19
Passing Yards / Game
13
32
Rushing Yards / Game
7
14
EPA
EPA / Play
6
15
EPA / Pass
8
14
EPA / Rush
7
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
31
Interceptions / Game
1
4
Fumbles / Game
30
27
Turnover EPA / Game
21
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
27
4th Down Efficiency
22
10
RZ Efficiency
15
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Rams
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U