NOSaints
3-2
13
TBD
Lumen Field
54°F
16 mph
10
SEASeahawks
2-4
TBD
Lumen Field
54°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
10
0
3
13
Seahawks
7
0
3
0
10
Spread
+6
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
304
219
Total Plays
68
55
Yards / Play
4.5
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.23
Passing Yards
210
129
Comp/Att
19/35(54%)
12/22(55%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
5.9
EPA / Pass
-0.18
-0.18
Rushing Yards
94
90
Rush Attempts
31
28
Yards / Rush
3.0
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.27
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
14
Passing 1st downs
10
6
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
4
4
3rd Down %
15%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
2
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
25%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.21
--
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-12
-38
Sack EPA
-2.44
-6.04
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
90
53
Penalty EPA
-9.14
-6.28
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model64.9%
Spread Pick
Seahawks+6.0
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-64
Home nfelo
1,570
Away nfelo
1,608
Home Field
+23.9
Base HFA
+41.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-32.0
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+14.8
Net QB Adjustment
-49.6
Home QB Adjustment
-61.2
Away QB Adjustment
-11.5
Market Regression
-14.8
Final Difference
-106.5
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-11.5
E. Smith
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
-61.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
12
Yards / Game
28
28
Passing Yards / Game
31
32
Rushing Yards / Game
16
17
EPA
EPA / Play
28
17
EPA / Pass
24
24
EPA / Rush
27
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
7
Interceptions / Game
12
22
Fumbles / Game
3
18
Turnover EPA / Game
18
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
15
4th Down Efficiency
17
3
RZ Efficiency
16
3
Seahawks Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
4
Yards / Game
20
6
Passing Yards / Game
24
13
Rushing Yards / Game
10
4
EPA
EPA / Play
13
1
EPA / Pass
17
3
EPA / Rush
6
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
18
Interceptions / Game
2
6
Fumbles / Game
5
18
Turnover EPA / Game
31
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
5
4th Down Efficiency
32
5
RZ Efficiency
3
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Seahawks
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
3-6-1
O/U