NOSaints
3-2
13
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
020
HOUTexans
2-3
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
3
3
0
13
Texans
7
10
3
0
20
Spread
+2
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
430
297
Total Plays
78
60
Yards / Play
5.5
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.07
+0.03
Passing Yards
341
177
Comp/Att
33/51(65%)
13/27(48%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.10
-0.01
Rushing Yards
89
120
Rush Attempts
25
31
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
19
Passing 1st downs
13
9
Rushing 1st downs
9
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
40%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.54
+0.30
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-16
-22
Sack EPA
-2.68
-3.92
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
83
29
Penalty EPA
-8.74
-2.72
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model54.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-53
Home nfelo
1,406
Away nfelo
1,527
Home Field
+43.1
Base HFA
+43.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+24.9
Home QB Adjustment
+14.6
Away QB Adjustment
-10.2
Market Regression
-12.6
Final Difference
-32.8
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-10.2
C. Stroud
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+14.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
11
Yards / Game
13
15
Passing Yards / Game
4
6
Rushing Yards / Game
21
8
EPA
EPA / Play
19
13
EPA / Pass
14
16
EPA / Rush
24
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
15
Interceptions / Game
10
15
Fumbles / Game
10
25
Turnover EPA / Game
26
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
6
4th Down Efficiency
22
18
RZ Efficiency
18
15
Texans Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
6
Yards / Game
15
13
Passing Yards / Game
21
16
Rushing Yards / Game
28
22
EPA
EPA / Play
14
3
EPA / Pass
11
5
EPA / Rush
27
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
24
Interceptions / Game
1
3
Fumbles / Game
13
8
Turnover EPA / Game
32
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
4
4th Down Efficiency
31
3
RZ Efficiency
16
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
0-10
O/U
Texans
4-6
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U