NOSaints
5-1
30
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
020
MINVikings
4-2
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
10
4
3
24
Vikings
7
6
0
7
20
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
53.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
270
423
Total Plays
53
67
Yards / Play
5.1
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.10
-0.16
Passing Yards
--
338
Comp/Att
19/24(79%)
31/41(76%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.2
EPA / Pass
+0.18
-0.15
Rushing Yards
106
85
Rush Attempts
29
22
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
27
Passing 1st downs
9
19
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
44%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
9
10
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.12
-18.40
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-21
Sack EPA
--
-6.77
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
64
54
Penalty EPA
-7.45
-13.75
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model50.6%
Spread Pick
Vikings+2.5
Expected Value
+2.6%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+29
Home nfelo
1,591
Away nfelo
1,610
Home Field
+58.0
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-9.5
Home QB Adjustment
+16.3
Away QB Adjustment
+25.8
Market Regression
-46.9
Final Difference
-4.3
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+25.8
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+16.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
10
Yards / Game
8
4
Passing Yards / Game
21
3
Rushing Yards / Game
9
14
EPA
EPA / Play
2
2
EPA / Pass
2
1
EPA / Rush
13
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
17
Interceptions / Game
4
20
Fumbles / Game
13
19
Turnover EPA / Game
23
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
1
4th Down Efficiency
2
6
RZ Efficiency
4
3
Vikings Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
14
Yards / Game
20
12
Passing Yards / Game
6
17
Rushing Yards / Game
29
2
EPA
EPA / Play
27
11
EPA / Pass
25
21
EPA / Rush
32
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
30
Interceptions / Game
8
15
Fumbles / Game
25
7
Turnover EPA / Game
10
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
23
4th Down Efficiency
29
7
RZ Efficiency
21
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Vikings
6-3-1
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U