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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. seahawks @ 49ers week 2, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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SEA logo
SEASeahawks
1-0
7
TBD
Levi's Stadium
70°F
0
27
SF49ers
0-1
SF logo
TBD
Levi's Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
0
0
1
0
1
49ers
6
14
0
7
27

Spread

SF logo
-8

Total

UNDER
40

Game Statistics

General
Seahawks logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
216
373
Total Plays
47
70
Yards / Play
4.6
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.33
+0.10
Passing Yards
180
184
Comp/Att
24/31(77%)
15/24(63%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
7.7
EPA / Pass
-0.41
+0.07
Rushing Yards
36
189
Rush Attempts
14
45
Yards / Rush
2.6
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.27
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
Seahawks logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
14
25
Passing 1st downs
10
8
Rushing 1st downs
3
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
6
3rd Down %
29%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
7
15
Red Zone %
0%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Seahawks logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-8.52
+4.46
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-17
--
Sack EPA
-3.09
-1.05
Penalties
10
1
Penalty Yards
106
--
Penalty EPA
-13.08
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-8.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market75.7%
Model72.5%
Spread Pick
SEA logo
Seahawks+8.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+10.0%
Cover Probability
55.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+103
Home nfelo
1,558
Away nfelo
1,481
Home Field
+33.6
Base HFA
+37.4
Divisional Adj
-16.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-7.4
Home QB Adjustment
-12.3
Away QB Adjustment
-4.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
168.3
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

E. Smith headshot

E. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-4.8
Value
Ptile
12/07
-0.9
43
12/14
-2.9
30
12/21
-2.1
35
12/28
10.2
96
10/23
-4.5
17
12/03
-2.3
36
10/17
-2.7
33
10/25
-5.2
18
10/31
1.2
61
09/12
3.1
76
T. Lance headshot

T. Lance

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-12.3
Value
Ptile
10/10
-2.6
34
01/02
1.7
66
09/11
-5.4
15

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense
Seahawks logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
10
1
Yards / Game
13
2
Passing Yards / Game
8
19
Rushing Yards / Game
18
2

EPA

EPA / Play
10
1
EPA / Pass
15
2
EPA / Rush
16
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
27
Interceptions / Game
12
2
Fumbles / Game
27
19
Turnover EPA / Game
6
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
13
4th Down Efficiency
6
16
RZ Efficiency
27
20
49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
49ers logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
6
25
Yards / Game
6
28
Passing Yards / Game
27
23
Rushing Yards / Game
7
30

EPA

EPA / Play
6
29
EPA / Pass
2
25
EPA / Rush
23
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
9
Interceptions / Game
3
16
Fumbles / Game
26
7
Turnover EPA / Game
31
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
27
4th Down Efficiency
29
3
RZ Efficiency
19
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/14
-17
L
L
U
11/21
-10
L
L
U
11/29
-2
L
L
U
12/05
7
W
W
O
12/12
20
W
W
O
12/21
-10
L
L
U
12/26
-1
L
L
O
01/02
22
W
W
O
01/09
8
W
W
O
09/12
1
W
W
U
SF logo

49ers

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/05
-7
L
L
O
12/12
3
W
W
P
12/19
18
W
W
U
12/23
-3
L
L
U
01/02
16
W
W
U
01/09
3
W
W
O
01/16
6
W
W
U
01/22
3
W
W
U
01/30
-3
L
W
U
09/11
-9
L
L
U