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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. seahawks @ 49ers week 11, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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SEA logo
SEASeahawks
4-5
20
TBD
Levi's Stadium
59°F
4 mph
17
SF49ers
5-4
SF logo
TBD
Levi's Stadium
59°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
3
3
7
7
20
49ers
7
0
3
7
17

Spread

SEA logo
+6

Total

UNDER
48.5

Game Statistics

General
Seahawks logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
289
277
Total Plays
59
57
Yards / Play
4.9
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.08
-0.01
Passing Yards
195
146
Comp/Att
25/32(78%)
21/28(75%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
5.2
EPA / Pass
-0.02
+0.03
Rushing Yards
94
131
Rush Attempts
23
27
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.04
+0.19
Downs & Conversions
Seahawks logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
19
21
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
8
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
46%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Seahawks logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.32
-4.88
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-26
-13
Sack EPA
-6.55
-2.18
Penalties
4
9
Penalty Yards
20
54
Penalty EPA
-1.04
-6.83

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+172
Home nfelo
1,633
Away nfelo
1,480
Home Field
+5.0
Base HFA
+41.5
Divisional Adj
-18.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-32.3
Surface Adj
+14.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+14.2
Home QB Adjustment
+13.0
Away QB Adjustment
-1.2
Market Regression
-14.1
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

E. Smith headshot

E. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-1.2
Value
Ptile
01/07
2.0
64
09/08
0.8
53
09/15
4.4
77
09/22
-1.8
36
09/30
4.3
76
10/06
2.4
65
10/10
-1.4
38
10/20
1.1
57
10/27
-0.1
48
11/03
-5.0
16
B. Purdy headshot

B. Purdy

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+13.0
Value
Ptile
02/11
2.2
65
09/09
0.6
52
09/15
-1.2
40
09/22
8.2
93
09/29
-0.3
47
10/06
-4.2
21
10/10
6.4
86
10/20
-2.8
29
10/27
6.9
89
11/10
3.8
74

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense
Seahawks logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
17
29
Yards / Game
15
7
Passing Yards / Game
4
2
Rushing Yards / Game
28
18

EPA

EPA / Play
20
30
EPA / Pass
21
14
EPA / Rush
18
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
21
Interceptions / Game
26
18
Fumbles / Game
6
19
Turnover EPA / Game
10
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
25
4th Down Efficiency
21
26
RZ Efficiency
14
31
49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
49ers logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
14
13
Yards / Game
4
13
Passing Yards / Game
2
9
Rushing Yards / Game
11
16

EPA

EPA / Play
11
10
EPA / Pass
9
8
EPA / Rush
13
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
5
Interceptions / Game
26
13
Fumbles / Game
22
19
Turnover EPA / Game
7
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
10
4th Down Efficiency
23
6
RZ Efficiency
14
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

5-5
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/07
1
W
L
U
09/08
6
W
L
O
09/15
3
W
L
O
09/22
21
W
W
U
09/30
-13
L
L
O
10/06
-9
L
L
O
10/10
-12
L
L
O
10/20
20
W
W
U
10/27
-21
L
L
U
11/03
-6
L
L
U
SF logo

49ers

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
02/11
-3
L
L
P
09/09
13
W
W
O
09/15
-6
L
L
U
09/22
-3
L
L
O
09/29
17
W
W
O
10/06
-1
L
L
U
10/10
12
W
W
O
10/20
-10
L
L
U
10/27
6
W
W
O
11/10
3
W
L
U