SEASeahawks
4-5
20
TBD
Levi's Stadium
59°F
4 mph
17
SF49ers
5-4
TBD
Levi's Stadium
59°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
3
3
7
7
20
49ers
7
0
3
7
17
Spread
+6
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
289
277
Total Plays
59
57
Yards / Play
4.9
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.08
-0.01
Passing Yards
195
146
Comp/Att
25/32(78%)
21/28(75%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
5.2
EPA / Pass
-0.02
+0.03
Rushing Yards
94
131
Rush Attempts
23
27
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.04
+0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
21
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
8
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
46%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.32
-4.88
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-26
-13
Sack EPA
-6.55
-2.18
Penalties
4
9
Penalty Yards
20
54
Penalty EPA
-1.04
-6.83
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+174
Home nfelo
1,635
Away nfelo
1,480
Home Field
+5.0
Base HFA
+41.6
Divisional Adj
-18.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-32.4
Surface Adj
+14.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+14.2
Home QB Adjustment
+13.0
Away QB Adjustment
-1.2
Market Regression
-14.1
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
E. Smith
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-1.2
B. Purdy
Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+13.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
29
Yards / Game
15
7
Passing Yards / Game
4
2
Rushing Yards / Game
28
18
EPA
EPA / Play
20
30
EPA / Pass
21
14
EPA / Rush
18
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
21
Interceptions / Game
26
18
Fumbles / Game
6
19
Turnover EPA / Game
10
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
25
4th Down Efficiency
21
26
RZ Efficiency
14
31
49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
13
Yards / Game
4
13
Passing Yards / Game
2
9
Rushing Yards / Game
11
16
EPA
EPA / Play
11
10
EPA / Pass
9
8
EPA / Rush
13
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
5
Interceptions / Game
26
13
Fumbles / Game
22
19
Turnover EPA / Game
7
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
10
4th Down Efficiency
23
6
RZ Efficiency
14
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Seahawks
5-5
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U
49ers
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-4-1
O/U